Tough wisdom from Treppenwitz:

This is one time an Arab aggressor must be allowed to be beaten so badly that every civilized nation will stand in horror, wanting desperately to step in and stop the carnage... but knowing that the fight will only truly be over when one side gives up and finally admits defeat. . . .

[E]very well-intentioned power that has ever stepped in and negotiated a ceasefire for an Arab aggressor has helped create the monsters we see around us today.

President Lahoud of Lebanon, a big Hezbollah supporter and a close ally of Syria, has been shrieking non-stop to the UN Security Council for the past two days to get them to force Israel into a cease fire.

Clearly he has been reading his autographed copy of 'Military Success for Dummies Arab Despots' by the late Gamal Abdel Nasser of Egypt. Ever since Nasser accidentally discovered the trick in '56, every subsequent Arab leader has stuck to his tried and true formula for military success:

1. Instigate a war.

2. Once the war is well underway and you are in the process of having your ass handed to you... get a few world powers to force your western opponent into a cease fire.

3. Whatever you do, don't surrender or submit to any terms dictated by your enemy. That would ruin everything! All you have to do is wait it out and eventually the world will become sickened at what is being done to your soldiers and civilian population... and will force a truce.

4. Once a truce has been called you can resume your intransigence (which probably caused the conflict in the first place), and even declare victory as your opponent leaves the field of battle.

This tactic has never failed. Not once. . . .

As much as it may sicken the world to stand by and watch it happen, strong hands need to hold back the weak-hearted and let the fight continue until one side finally admits unambiguous defeat.

Posted by: Ragnar at 05:21 PM | Comments (6) | Add Comment
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Prof. Juan Cole surmises that the Jews are using the kidnappings and Hizb'Allah rocket attacks merely as a pretext for 'ethnic cleansing' in Lebanon:

If the reports coming out of Lebanon can be believed, the Israelis are only sometimes striking known Hizbullah safe houses or facilities or missile emplacements. A lot of their bombardment appears aimed at punishing civilian populations and forcing them north to Beirut. Such an approach would help explain the high number of civilian casualties. That is, there may be an element of ethnic cleansing in Israeli tactics.

Cole doesn't give the Lebanese a pass. He admits that the Lebanese have some responsibility here. They should've known, after all, that this would happen when they got too big for their britches and kicked out their Syrian protectors:

So, basically, the Palestinians and the Lebanese are screwed. The Lebanese might not have been in such a vulnerable situation if they had not kicked out the Syrians, though the Syrians were there in 1982 the last time Israel invaded.

Thanks to Goldstein and TigerHawk for the heads ups.

Posted by: Ragnar at 05:57 AM | Comments (7) | Add Comment
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Stratfor on Hizb'Allah's crime syndicate:

Hezbollah has a long-standing and well-known presence in the tri-border region of Paraguay, Argentina and Brazil, where the U.S. government estimates it has earned tens of millions of dollars from selling electronic goods, counterfeit luxury items and pirated software, movies and music. It also has an even more profitable network in West Africa that deals in "blood diamonds" from places like Sierra Leone and the Republic of the Congo. Cells in Asia procure and ship much of the counterfeit material sold elsewhere; nodes in North America deal in smuggled cigarettes, baby formula and counterfeit designer goods, among other things. In the United States, Hezbollah also has been involved in smuggling pseudoephedrine and selling counterfeit Viagra, and it has played a significant role in the production and worldwide propagation of counterfeit currencies.

The business empire of the Shiite organization also extends into the drug trade. The Bekaa Valley, which it controls, is a major center for growing poppies and cannabis; here also, heroin is produced from raw materials arriving from places like Afghanistan and the Golden Triangle. Hezbollah earns large percentages of the estimated $1 billion drug trade flowing out of the Bekaa. Much of the hashish and heroin emanating from there eventually arrive in Europe -- where Hezbollah members also are involved in smuggling, car theft and distribution of counterfeit goods and currency.

I wonder what the other Allah worshippers think.

Posted by: Ragnar at 07:36 PM | Comments (8) | Add Comment
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Not news, but Helen Thomas really is an embarassment.

Posted by: Ragnar at 02:09 AM | Comments (7) | Add Comment
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David Bernstein blows apart the lie that Israeli occupation of the territories has "impoverished" the palestinian Arabs:

Browing around the blogosphere recently, I've noticed that critics of Israel consistently repeat various versions of the following talking point (promoting by false propaganda emanating from sources such as this one): "what do you expect from the Palestinians? Israeli occupation impoverished them, and desperate, hungry people can only be expected to take desperate measures."

The idea that "occupation," per se, impoverished the Palestinians is simply wrong. . .

--"Private consumption per capita [and per capita includes population growth, which was among the highest in the world in the territories] rose during 1969-1986 at an overall rate of 5% per annum."

-- Outside of regugee camps in Gaza (which Israel wanted to replace with permanent housing, but was prevented so as not to help solve the "refugee crisis" that provided the PLO's reason for existence), "in 1986, 95% of the Households in Gaza had running water and 100% had electricity (compared with 3 percent for water and 14% for electricity in 1974)."

--The percentage individual "with at least 9 years of education has risen from 22% in 1970 to 46% in 1986 in the West Bank, and from 32% to 54% in the Gaza Strip during the same period." Not noted in the paper I'm citing, all of the universities in the West Bank and Gaza were opened during the Israeli administration of the territories. There were none before that.

--As this source (hostile to Israel) acknowledges, as of 1993, per capita income in the Palestinian territories was higher than in Egypt (MUCH!) or Jordan, the countries that previously occupied Gaza and the West Bank, respectively. The logical conclusion from this is that if Israel had not won these territories in the Six Day War, the Arab population would have been much poorer.

Posted by: Ragnar at 08:37 AM | Comments (5) | Add Comment
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Captain Ed on Israel's ceasefire terms:

The Lebanese Army could not take Southern Lebanon away from Hezbollah without disarming them. After all, the only reason Hezbollah has for retaining its arms is its argument that it alone can stand as a bulwark against the Israelis. That argument seems to be loser at the moment, of course, but it's the only logical rationalization that the group has.

If Lebanon moved Hezbollah away from the border, the group's political support would collapse. They would either have to take Beirut to keep alive, or they would find themselves driven out of Lebanese politics altogether. As it is, the Israeli butt-kicking coming from their unilateral provocation will likely cause heavy political damage anyway.

Armed terrorists do not willingly give up their weapons, especially not in a losing cause. The Lebanese Army does not have the muscle to disarm them. Therefore, the Israeli conditions cannot be met -- and they are the bare minimum that Israel can accept for the sake of its own security. The war will continue until Israel cuts off and crushes Hezbollah and finishes them as a provocative "military" force.

Posted by: Ragnar at 01:02 AM | Comments (1) | Add Comment
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...and "shaken" by Bush's recent S-bomb droppage. Stirred? Not so much.

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Stratfor's take on Israel's current interest in diplomacy:

Israel is . . . interested in continuing the diplomatic process. Its reasoning can be seen from reports Stratfor has received from sources close to Hezbollah. They have said that Hezbollah is maintaining its attacks on Israel because the militants want Israel to attack them on the ground sooner rather than later. Over time, they fear, Hezbollah's ability to resist Israeli attack will be undermined by airstrikes. The militants' command and control, communications, weapons stockpiles and morale will be undermined. On the other hand, if Israel were to attack now, Hezbollah's leadership is confident that it could impose losses on Israeli troops that would be unacceptable. That is what the militants want to achieve -- they want to engage Israel as the first Arab force that, even if it can't win in the end, can severely damage the Israel Defense Forces.

If that is actually Hezbollah's thinking -- and that would explain their behavior -- then we can also better understand Israeli thinking. If the airstrikes are hurting Hezbollah's morale and infrastructure, there is no reason to hurry in on the ground. It makes more sense to let the current situation continue even if it means further attacks on Israeli targets. In the meantime, Tel Aviv can engage in diplomatic initiatives that will reposition Israel in the international system. Rather than resisting diplomatic efforts, Israel is participating, setting demands that appear extremely reasonable while being unattainable. While that game goes on, so does the air war and the undermining of Hezbollah's core strength.

Posted by: Ragnar at 08:40 PM | Comments (2) | Add Comment
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Larry C. Johnson, a former CIA agent, New York Times columnist and current MSM "go to" expert on all things intelligence-related, shared these gems of wisdom today about Israel's invasion of Lebanon:

Apparently not content to let the U.S. do a self-immolation act in the Middle East by itself, Israel decided to set itself on fire by invading Lebanon. Burn baby burn? Like George Bush, Israel's Prime Minister, Ehud Olmert, never served in a combat unit and launched military operations without thinking the matter through. In fact, Olmert reportedly never even served in the military. . .

Killing "terrorists" has a place in policy but it is not a strategic military obective. It is a tactical objective and may serve political purposes, but achieves little in terms of securing Israel. Israel is attacking targets in Lebanon like a drunken sailor in a bar fight. Flailing about, causing significant damage, hitting innocent bystanders, and generally making a mess of things. . . .

What about Hamas and Hezbollah?

They are not terrorists. They carry out terrorist attacks, but they are not terrorists. . . .

As to the second point, only time will tell whether the IDF went into Lebanon with a plan for success against Hib'Allah or merely went in to "flail about" like a "drunken sailor". My guess is that the Israelis went in with a detailed, thoroughly thought out plan, and that the plan will be carried out with all the efficiency and effectiveness we've come to expect from the IDF. Whether this operation achieves Israel's long-term strategic objectives, only time will tell.

As for how one can "engage in terrorist attacks" and yet not be a "terrorist", that logic completely escapes me. Perhaps someone could explain that to me.

Posted by: Ragnar at 07:55 PM | Comments (23) | Add Comment
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Reading this article in the Seattle Times, it's pretty clear to me that Israel is serious as a heart attack about shutting down Hezbollah:

JERUSALEM (AP)--Ehud Olmert's effort to free three captured soldiers has become a broad campaign to alter the strategic balance of the Middle East - an enormous gamble for an Israeli prime minister facing growing domestic pressure to hit Islamic militants hard.

Israel's assault on Lebanon, which has already killed 73 people and turned much of the country into a battlefield, could backfire if it becomes a protracted quagmire, provokes war with Syria or exposes Israelis to increasingly deadly attacks.

But Olmert likely sees Israel's simultaneous offensives in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon as a way to strike a decisive blow not only against Hezbollah and Hamas but also against the interests of Syria and Iran, which bankroll and arm the militants.

Because of widespread Israeli support for strong action against Hezbollah, which penetrated Israel's northern border and captured two soldiers this week, Olmert could be in even bigger trouble if he backs down.

. . .

Support for Israel's campaign in Lebanon has come from some unlikely sources, including Yossi Beilin, Israel's best known leftist, and Orna Shimoni, who played a leading role in pressing Israel to withdraw from Lebanon in 2000 after an 18-year occupation.
. . .

Israeli Cabinet Minister Isaac Herzog said Israel wants to "change the rules of the game."

"Our aim is to change the basic parameters and the basic pattern of behavior so that there will be no more kidnappings and no more insurgencies and no more terror activity and we expect that the Lebanese government will know that they will pay a price if they don't act," he told The Associated Press.

Brig. Gen. Ido Nehushtan, a member of Israel's General Staff, put it bluntly: "We need to put Hezbollah out of business."

Hatzlacha Rabbah.

Posted by: Ragnar at 05:19 PM | Comments (10) | Add Comment
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Yesterday I said, "Ted when you get there(NPR) you need to put a foot up a few asses." Turns out Koppel just interviewed Hezbollah just last week.

Koppel Last night on All Things Considered:

Iran is playing a very dangerous game...The goal is to remove Israel.

Israel National News: All the conditions for the removal of the Zionist regime are at hand,” Ahmadinejad told an Arab Conference of Iraqi Neighbors meeting on Saturday. For the first time, he employed the Arabic word ezaleh, which is used to describe the irreversible removal of body hairs.

“Nations in the region will be more furious every day. It won’t take long before the wrath of the people turns into a terrible explosion that will wipe the Zionist entity off the map,” Ahmadinejad told the foreign ministers of Jordan, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Turkey, Bahrain and Egypt. The heads of the Arab League and the Islamic Conference were also present, in addition to a special United Nations representative.

None of the foreign ministers present, including Jordan, Egypt or Turkey - commonly regarded as Israel’s friends in the Arab/Muslim world - objected to the call for annihilation.

Posted by: Howie at 01:06 PM | Comments (8) | Add Comment
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Via Big Pharoah:

My dad was a general in the Egyptian army. His comments are always so informative especially if they were related to a war that broke out. He had this to say about Lebanon:

This idiot Nasrallah. He is so funny. He keeps on issuing threats, he has no idea what he is talking about. What Israel is doing to him now is just gentle padding on the shoulders. Abou Shakha dah didn't see what we saw. Israel fought on 3 fronts in 1967 and it was hell. I was there, I saw it all. He has no tanks, no boats, he has nothing except a few toys he got from Iran and it seems abu shakha dah don't know that Israel confronted 3 of the most powerful armies in the region at the same time. If Israel wanted to brutally crush him it can do so in 1 hour.

Posted by: Ragnar at 10:26 AM | Comments (12) | Add Comment
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1 Big Pharoah's father was not hiding behind innocent civilians, while Nasrallah is. That's the difference. Israel cannot brutally crush Hisbollah without killing lots of innocent civilians. Nasrallah is counting on that.

Posted by: Jesusland Carlos at July 14, 2006 10:52 AM (8e/V4)

2 Exactly right, Carlos. The response of the Arab world to Israel's fundamental and growing military superiority has not been to further develop their military might, which was how they responded from 1948-1973. Now, they have chosen terrorism, launched from lawless areas (Lebanon, Gaza) where no central authority is directly responsible for the violence, and those responsible hide among civilians. It is cowardly, sick, and effective. Syria and Iran, instead of attacking Israel directly, use their puppets in Gaza and Lebanon.

The truth is, the Arab world has yet to learn the lesson of Napoleon, and the power of the citizen army. Israel wins not only because of its technological advantage and its alliance with us, but also because their military units hold together and fight as teams, whereas Arab militaries are only really good at taking out civilians (Hama) or blunt frontal assaults (Iran-Iraq). Their soldiers don't trust that their governments give a damn about them. That's why, once the 73 war turned against Egypt, it was sandles all the way to the Nile. Run!

This same factor undergirds the current crisis. No Arab nation would respond to the capture of three soldiers the way Israel has. It's because they have a civilian national army. No Israeli PM could allow a soldier to remain captive, and not respond.

Posted by: jd at July 14, 2006 11:23 AM (aqTJB)

3 "Innocent civilians" is a contradiction in terms. No civilians inhabiting an evil country should be considered "innocent" in the sense that they should deter full military operations - if that is what is warranted - from occuring.

To ask a country to sacrifice its interests, its soldiers and perhaps even its existence in order to protect a group of people too weak, too cowardly or too evil to overthrow a corrupt, evil government (or police its own terrorist organizations) is the height of disgusting self-sacrifice. I deny that Israel has any obligation to not kill a single man, woman or child in Lebanon - if it is in the legitimate interests of Israel's self defense.

I will repeat: so long as Israel continues to restrain itself, it will lose ground, slowly but surely. Eventually, it will lead to another holocaust. Their choice.

Posted by: MiB at July 14, 2006 11:55 AM (6jwxg)

4 The Arab militaries are in reality the true paper tigers.

I don't often agree with you, JD, but you're spot on here.

Posted by: Good Lt at July 14, 2006 11:56 AM (jWYAe)

5 jd finally gets it right.

Posted by: Jesusland Carlos at July 14, 2006 12:08 PM (8e/V4)

6 Even a blind pig finds an acorn from time to time.



MiB: Even if Israel's own sense of humanity didn't stop them from launching the type of reckless assaults you advocate, I doubt it would ultimately work. They would lose so much legitimacy in the eyes of the world, particularly us. You may say, well, Europe already hates them, but this isn't true. They benefit immensely from trade and diplomacy with Europe. They could lose it if they slaughtered, say, 35,000 Lebanese civilians going after Hezbollah.

It is NOT the same as two nations at war, at least not exactly. Many of those who would die in Lebanon are not supporters of Nasrallah. Many would be Christians who were his opponents, or Druze, or Sunnis. It would only make radical Islam stronger, in the end, and give it more moral legitimacy.

So what SHOULD Israel do? I actually think they are doing okay right now, and in the long run, they should try to get another Sinai deal, with the Palestinians, Lebanon, and eventually Syria. Sinai has worked. Not perfectly, of course. But land for peace between Begin and Sadat worked.

Posted by: jd at July 14, 2006 12:22 PM (aqTJB)

7 No man has the right to claim another cannot defend himself to the utmost for his own sake.

If Israel's "reckless" assaults would make it lose legitimacy in the world - it had any to begin with, one, and two, the moral shortcomings of your neighbors should not have any bearings on your own actions.

I am sure many in Germany died who were not supporters of Hitler. Certainly, many in the Soviet Union would have died who not only were not supporters of the regime, but hated it. Neither of these facts cracks the moral legitimacy of destroying either country. The fact of the matter is that no person can claim the right to deny another the right to self-defense for their own sake.

It is high time Israel stopped kowtowing, trying to gain "legitimacy" in the rest of the world which it does not need nor should it pursue.

Posted by: MiB at July 14, 2006 12:34 PM (6jwxg)

8 You are making a lot of sense, MiB. I withdraw the moral claim, but still hold fast to the utility claim--if Israel behaves in a way that is insensitive to civilian deaths, it will lose its valued relationships with Europe. True, Israel will have to balance that versus its assessment of whether killing those civilians will lead to enhanced security.

Posted by: jd at July 14, 2006 02:09 PM (aqTJB)

9 There is no value to be gained from any relationship with an entity that denies that you have the right to exercise self defense to the utmost.

Posted by: MiB at July 14, 2006 02:16 PM (6jwxg)

10 I posted this elsewhere today, but it needs to be said again.

It is wearisome to see so many people (influential and otherwise) calling for Israel to "restrain" itself.. usually this comes from people who are under the (wrong)impression that Israel is the big schoolyard bully picking on defenseless children.. these defenseless children are actually remorseless, bloodthirsty savages (terrorists, if you are PC).

In case no one has noticed, Israel is defending itself from brutal and ceaseless murders from the hands of blind followers of a false religion. Israel is fighting for its very survival, again.

In Genesis 12:3, God says to Abraham on the founding of the Israeli nation, "I will bless them that bless thee, and curse him that curseth thee."

We really need to stay on Israel's side. Those who think otherwise are in for a rude awakening.

Chris Tucker, American.

Posted by: JeepThang at July 14, 2006 03:54 PM (0411H)

11 sssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssss

Posted by: youssef at July 17, 2006 01:52 PM (yco1K)

12 It is written that God gave " license " to the jews to crush empires, not because the Jews are righteous or deserve it, rather that the empires they will crush are so much more evil and worthy of contempt in the eyes of God.

Posted by: Last gasp Larry at July 17, 2006 07:17 PM (gLMre)

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(Beirut, Lebanon) Israeli Air Force jets bombed holes into the runways of Beirut International Airport, forcing officials to close the facility.

From ITV.com:

Lebanese security sources said at least six rockets were fired at runways and a nearby road, forcing flights to divert to Cyprus.

The terminal building and planes were not hit and it was not immediately clear how badly the raid had damaged the runways but the airport is now closed.

Posted by: Mike Pechar at 05:20 AM | Comments (8) | Add Comment
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Muslims rioting?

BEIRUT, Lebanon - Thousands of Shiite Muslims enraged by a TV comedy that mocked the leader of Hezbollah took to the streets of southern Beirut on Thursday night, burning car tires and blocking roads, police and witneses said.

The trouble began after an actor spoofed Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, wearing the Hezbollah leader's trademark black turban and sporting a similar beard and spectacles on a TV show on Lebanese Broadcasting Corp, a privately-owned Christian channel.

Weird. I don't recall anything like that happening before. Just one of those isolated incidents.

Posted by: Vinnie at 03:02 PM | Comments (10) | Add Comment
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Syria's Interior Minister has reportedly 'committed suicide', Syrian state controlled media reports today. The story is fishy enough that many mainstream news outlets are making sure to put quotes around "committed suicide".

General Ghazi Kanaan was the former head of Syria's military intelligence in occupied Lebanon. Syrian intelligence agents or their proxies are suspected in the car-bombing assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri. Kanaan's 'suicide' comes just prior to the official release of a UN report which is said to implicate Syria. Kanaan has long been a leading suspect in the assassination.

The U.S. has also frozen Kanaan's assets because of his role in helping Syria support known terrorist groups.

As Wunderkraut rightly points out, Syrian dictator Bashar Al-Assad told CNN that if a Syrian was behind Hariri's assassination, that person would be deemed 'a traitor':

But, he said, if the U.N. probe concluded that Syrians were involved, then they would be regarded as traitors and should be charged with treason and face punishment, either through the Syrian judicial process or by an international court.

DEBKA, of course, finds Kanaan's death a little too coincidental for their tastes:

Its occurrence hours before Assad was to go on the air for a landmark CNN interview suggests the president may have been preparing to sacrifice close aides to mute Washington’s pressure on his own policies.

Ya Libnan, an online Lebanese news site says of a radio interview with Kanaan yesterday:

The interview sounded more like a speech than a question and answer session. He sounded as if he was reading all what he was saying . His last sentence was: I will not call any other channel with this information and named all the Lebanese channels. He went on to say " this is the last you will hear from me" I will not be calling again.

The news about his suicide will be a big blow to the UN investigating commission, since he must have know a lot about what went on in Lebanon and who is behind Hariri's assassination. Some political analysts are speculating that Kannan was killed to use him as the scapegoat and to hide the truth about who really killed Hariri.

Posted by: Rusty at 08:51 AM | Comments (17) | Add Comment
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Interesting article. But the more important question is will Iran stop funding armed militias and terrorists in Lebanon? WaPo:

Iran has pulled out the vast majority of its Revolutionary Guards in Lebanon after two decades as a major player among the country's Shiite population, most notably as the impetus for the creation of Hezbollah, according to U.S. and European officials.

At one point, Iran was estimated to have as many as 2,000 of its elite troops inside Lebanon. But today Tehran is reported to have from 12 to 50 military personnel in the country -- and probably on the lower end of that range, the officials said.

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The Cedar Revolution is incomplete. Support Spirit of America's efforts at helping the Lebanese take their country back from Syria and Iran. Every dollar helps.

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