Posted at NEWT.ORG:

Alternative Strategy

 

• We should instead pursue a policy of what might be called “Deterrence Plus” This strategy is similar to what President Reagan did with the Soviets at the end of the Cold War when the patient application of strategies that President Reagan defined as “peace through strength” ultimately succeeded in the dissolution of the Soviet Union.
   
  • Deter the aggressor militarily, including with cutting-edge strategic assets and fully capable missile defenses.   
     
  • Preempt imminent threats (including missile tests that are not inspected by international inspectors).
     
  • Pursue strategies that undermine a corrupt and brittle regime.
     
    
    • Facilitate the departure of refugees, pump information in via broadcasting, cut off sources of revenue, distribute massive amounts of food through non-government channels.  
       
• Disrupt proliferation activities.
   


• Engage diplomatically, but don’t sign agreements that prop up the regime or bargain away our advantage.

Posted by: Ragnar at 05:24 PM | Comments (9) | Add Comment
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"May you live in interesting times." - Ancient Chinese curse.

Yea, that is a curse when you think about it.

So is this:

TOKYO - Japan has the technological know-how to produce a nuclear weapon but has no immediate plans to do so, the foreign minister said Thursday, several weeks after communist
North Korea carried out a nuclear test.

This is welcome news. If there's anything that the ChiComs and Norks fear, it's a militarily resurgent Japan. One that is closely allied with the West.

Posted by: Vinnie at 11:01 PM | Comments (6) | Add Comment
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I was unable to post this earlier for some reason, so am trying again. The basic situation here is that, like Rusty, I'm not sure what comes next. Rusty asks:

So, is leaving the answer? Or is there something else we should be doing?

I think we have to leave for two reasons. One is that we ultimately have to draw-down until we disappear, so that the credit and legitimacy associated with victory over the Islamofascist insurgency in Iraq accrues to the new government. They need it, just as all newly formed governments need legitimacy. The other reason is that we now have other materializing challenges.

Note: I'm assuming that far from the MSM's conclusion that we're losing and that Iraq is a quagmire, we've essentially won. Barring some miracle the Sunni version of Islamofascism will be ejected, eventually. They're at a strategic disadvantage, and judging from their own communiques they know it.

But that leaves us with a dilemma.

Since I'm a bicycle enthusiast I've chosen to illustrate the dilemma as analogous to Lance Armstrong's choice of whether, and how, to allow Marco Pantani the win on the Mont Ventoux stage of the Tour de France in 2002. Armstrong's "big idea" was that by making a magnanimous gesture he'd create a strategic ally in his overall effort to win the Tour. But it didn't work out that way. The problem was that he didn't pull up soon enough, so Pantani (and more importantly Pantani's fans) knew that the victory had been gifted. Had Armstrong been more clever he'd have made the arrangement far less obvious, and still have won Pantani as an ally.

So, borrowing from this analogy we need to leave early enough that any final victories won't be attributed to the US. That's the bitter pill we must swallow in service of a larger goal.

I think the best way for us to accomplish this tricky transition, without sacrificing our own reputation and appearing weak (which would help Islamofascist recruitment like nothing else), is to simply move on to another military mission, or at least clear the decks so that we can be ready should we need to act. We can rightly say that we didn't leave because we were defeated, but because we had pressing concerns somewhere else. The draw-down probably should be gradual, but still faster than would have seemed prudent a few months ago. Maybe the Baker Commission will give us some cover?

And where should the next engagement be? The tulip or the star?

Tear it up.

Posted by: Demosophist at 12:03 PM | Comments (33) | Add Comment
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North Korea's nuke may have been a dud.

From the Washington Times:

U.S. intelligence agencies say, based on preliminary indications, that North Korea did not produce its first nuclear blast yesterday.

U.S. officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said that seismic readings show that the conventional high explosives used to create a chain reaction in a plutonium-based device went off, but that the blast's readings were shy of a typical nuclear detonation.

Photo: Beloved Leader debates whether to spit or swallow.

Posted by: Bluto at 09:03 AM | Comments (9) | Add Comment
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This one has Karl Rove all over it. He probably pushed the button, for all we know.

"The Clinton-Kim Agreement of 1994, midwifed by Jimmy Carter, bears its fruit."

Of course, Foleygate and gay sex / cyber-sex are now the focus of the political conversation in Washington. The Democrats are BACK, BA-BEE!!

Because it is so important to know every salacious detail of an ex-Congressman's perversity , we will simply ignore the fact that a rouge Communist country is detonating nuclear weapons in Asia after launching missles towards Hawaii this summer.

Priorities. Sleep well, fellow citizens.

Posted by: Good Lt. at 04:29 AM | Comments (26) | Add Comment
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From the Associated Press:

SEOUL, South Korea - North Korea said Monday it has performed its first-ever nuclear weapons test.

U.S. and South Korean officials could not immediately confirm the report.

The North’s official Korean Central News Agency said the underground test was performed successfully and there was no radioactive leakage from the site.

South Korean intelligence officials said a seismic wave of magnitude-3.58 had been detected in North Hamkyung province, according to Yonhap. It said the test was conducted at 10:36 a.m. (9:36 p.m. EDT Sunday) in Hwaderi near Kilju city on the northeast coast, citing defense officials.

Via Jay at Stop the ACLU, who has a roundup of reactions.

Posted by: Bluto at 10:05 PM | Comments (22) | Add Comment
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1 Thanks Clinton, madam half-Brite, you did us proud.

Going to make some terror group one really big suicide truck bomb. Where is the next one going to be set off?

Posted by: bill at October 08, 2006 10:18 PM (7evkT)

2 Thanks, Roosevelt, for signing the Yalta Agreement, creating North Korea in the first place.

Thanks, Truman, for firing MacArthur.

Thanks, Eisenhower, for the cease-fire.

Every single administration since Kim Il Sung sent his troops over the border gets the blame for this one.

Posted by: Vinnie at October 09, 2006 01:03 AM (/qy9A)

3 Except W.
 
Rice 2008 !

Posted by: Darth Vag at October 09, 2006 01:30 AM (HSkSw)

4 According to Cheney's 1% doctrine, we should have invaded North Korea a long time ago as a pre-emptive defense. They have WMD, they would probably side with terrorists, and they are openly beligerant towards the US. What gives?

Oh that's right. They don't have any oil. I guess to be fair, it's not like Bush has had 6 years to do anything about it. He was too busy breaking Reagan's record for taking the most vacation time of any president in history.

Rice in '08? Yes, please!

Posted by: Rhyleh at October 09, 2006 03:04 AM (Q+ifs)

5 There is still time to kick Kim Il-Jung in the balls !
 
North Korean commies will soon taste defeat, courtesy of the much maligned military-industrial complex !
 
Don't you worry your little pacifist-loving ass !
 
It is time for peace on the Korean peninsula. But first, there must be red hot war.

Posted by: Darth Vag at October 09, 2006 03:16 AM (HSkSw)

6 Will you do me a favor and hold your breath while you're waiting?

Posted by: Rhyleh at October 09, 2006 04:03 AM (Q+ifs)

7 Thanks Clinton, madam half-Brite, you did us proud.

This is just old. Clinton and Albright have not been in power for SIX YEARS!

So, what's been going on that past six years to stop this? Please, I want to know.

I'll wait.

Posted by: David (SNAFU Principle) at October 09, 2006 08:29 AM (YkghQ)

8 " He was too busy breaking Reagan's record for taking the most vacation time of any president in history. "  
 
And during war-time to boot!  Fore!  L o ~~~~~~~~~~~ O 7

Posted by: Last gasp Larry at October 09, 2006 11:37 AM (Dd86v)

9 Larry, you're pathetic. Your last gasp can't come too soon for me. Not your death, mind you, just your last gasp on this blog.

Posted by: jesusland joe at October 09, 2006 11:42 AM (rUyw4)

10 Rhyleh:
Did I miss the part in your "1% doctrine" article, that says exclusively, military action is the only course for the solution?
Are you now suggesting Military action is now needed now that all the diplomatic channels are closed? or do you want to sit round the table with Kim and buy him off as a solution?
If you want to identify the policy as failing, surely you can point to a better one, right?

Posted by: davec at October 09, 2006 12:14 PM (QkWqQ)

11 Of course not, military action should always be a last resort. However, the consensus among the 6 nations involved in the talks is that the US needs to engage in a series of one-on-one talks with North Korea. However, for some unexplained reason, the Bush administration has refused to engage in these talks, insisting that 6-way talking be the only way.

I find that obstinance confusing, as we are simply talking about diplomatic conferencing. My suggestion would be to 1) engage in one-on-one talks, 2) coordinate a regional security policy with the other regional players, especially China, 3) send money and arms to N. Korean democrats and subversives and 4) increase our intelligence surveillance in the region by training up more translators and field agents.

Of course right now the policy has been to ignore the N. Korea propblem altogether, which as I understand it completely goes against the 1% doctrine.

Posted by: Rhyleh at October 09, 2006 03:29 PM (Q+ifs)

12 1.) We have already negotiated with them directly, it has put us in this situation.


On October 12, 1994, the United States and North Korea signed the "Agreed Framework": North Korea agreed to freeze its plutonium production program in exchange for fuel oil, economic cooperation, and the construction of two modern light-water nuclear power plants. Eventually, North Korea's existing nuclear facilities were to be dismantled, and the spent reactor fuel taken out of the country.

On August 31, 1998 North Korea launched a modified Taepodong-1 missile in a launch attempt of its Kwangmyŏngsŏng satellite. US Military analysts suspect satellite launch is a ruse for the testing of an ICBM. This missile flew over Japan causing the Japanese government to retract 1 billion in aid for two civilian light-water reactors.

14 November: US President George W Bush declares November oil shipments to the North will be the last if the North does not agree to put a halt to its weapons ambitions.

They didn't, so there ended their aid, how stupid do you have to be to think you can talk your way out of a situation, when you're being blackmailed with a Nuclear device?

2 China? -- They have routinely denied sanctions, along with Russia, you're really stretching here.

3 Arming subversives, kind of how Reagan shipped arms and money to the ISI? the irony runs thick.

4 To what end? we already knew they were going to test before they did? we knew before they launched the test missle, I mean what more will intelligence do, you're talking about buying him off, or talking -- what does intelligence do? mixed messages much?

The policy is to ignore blackmail, which has pushed him to the point of desperation, and humiliation as weapon after weapon program shows sign of failure.

Posted by: davec at October 09, 2006 04:24 PM (QkWqQ)

13 1. "...how stupid do you have to be to think you can talk your way out of a
situation, when you're being blackmailed with a Nuclear device?" As my answer pointed out, I never said that I would isolate our response to diplomacy. How stupid are you for not realizing that?

2. Obviously China and Russia will continue to enable N. Korea until we are able to convince them of our intentions in the region. N. Korea is really just a proxy of China; if we can make security assurances to the Chinese, that will influence their support for N. Korea. Any decision on N. Korea must be preceeded with a decision about our policy on China, particularly the Taiwan issue.

3. Arming subversives as a foreign policy tool is not an inherently anti-liberal position, the issue is screening who gets the weapons. For example, arming the Mujahadeen against the Soviets was very short sighted, as was backing Saddam against Iran. Arming nationalist democrats in North Korea is not necessarily bad, it depends largely on who we choose to represent us.

4. What does more intelligence do? It arms us with more information with which to neutralize the potential threat. If you honestly don't see how that could be advantageous, there's little point in continuing the conversation.

Posted by: Rhyleh at October 09, 2006 07:08 PM (Q+ifs)

14
I never said that I would isolate our response to diplomacy.

1. Which one of these drops the non-diplomacy hammer?


1) engage in one-on-one talks
2) coordinate a regional security policy with the other regional players, especially China,
3) send money and arms to N. Korean democrats and subversives and
4) increase our intelligence surveillance in the region by training up more translators and field agents.


Surprise! China does not care what the U.S wants! see Sudan, See Iran for more of the same blocking of every proposal just like with North Korea.

There never is a way to screen who you're arming, especially using proxies as we did with the ISI -- further I think arming people for an insurrection might break the armistice agreement, don't you think?

What more intelligence do you want? as a media consumer you've already found out ahead of time that intelligence said they would test a intercontinental Missile, and a Nuclear weapon -- just imagine what they withhold? also all the intelligence in the world means nothing,if you do nothing meaningful with it.

Posted by: davec at October 09, 2006 07:22 PM (QkWqQ)

15

Why JJ! Shouldn't you be out on the green following the lead of your fearless leader? Pretending that everything is not a screw-up and somehow the world will set itself in right during your 5-week war-time vacation?  Fore!  L o ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ O7

Posted by: Last gasp Larry at October 09, 2006 07:28 PM (Dd86v)

16 Nah, Larry, on my 5-week vacation I've been on the shooting range sharpening my skills with the Socom II, and in the woods putting up deer stands and scouting out deer trails and deer movement patterns. I have a feeling this guncraft and woodcraft will come in handy pretty soon. I have also recently bought a generator, a large supply of MRE's, a shitpot full of ammunition, gas masks, antibiotics, Tamiflu, medical masks and a few other things that are none of your business. I don't play golf.

Posted by: jesusland joe at October 09, 2006 09:57 PM (rUyw4)

17 A real Davy Crockett, heh JJ? Maybe you should take up golf. Might be good for your paranoid schizophrenia and delusions of grandeur  ..... Fore!  L o ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ O 7 

Posted by: Last gasp Larry at October 10, 2006 01:14 AM (Dd86v)

18 Damn! Why won't the spacing come out right?   ................................  Fore!  L o ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ O 7

Posted by: Last gasp Larry at October 10, 2006 01:16 AM (Dd86v)

19 my guess: you're a moron.

Posted by: davec at October 10, 2006 01:33 AM (QkWqQ)

20 Rice in 2008. Ha, ha. You've got to be kidding. Thats sick. Better Al Sharpton. At least we know what he stands for.

Posted by: Greyrooster at October 10, 2006 05:09 AM (xJ3Xm)

21 Jesusland Joe: How long do MRE's last? I know where there is a storage unit full of them. I recommend Cipro as antibiotic. Expensive as hell though. $980.00 for 120 caps, unless you know how to get it discounted. Maybe Mexico? But could you trust it to be the real thing? Haven't checked on Canada.

Posted by: Greyrooster at October 10, 2006 05:14 AM (xJ3Xm)

22 Don't forget tincture of iodine or betadine solution, if you haven't purchased Potassium Iodide pills (expensive) it will still protect from thyroid cancer from radioactive iodine, if used topically on your forearm / abdomen.

Posted by: davec at October 10, 2006 12:55 PM (QkWqQ)

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Ace found an article that says flight data shows the Nork ICBM was aimed at Hawaii. Fox News is also reporting this.

If true, that is an act of war and a good excuse to shoot down the next launch. Silly North Koreans. more...

Posted by: cbjohnson at 11:57 PM | Comments (7) | Add Comment
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It's oddly coincidental that at about the same time Americans were shooting rockets into the sky to celebrate independence, Kim Jong-il and his rogue communist regime decided to shoot rockets into the sky over the Sea of Japan.

It's almost poetic. One nation shoots rockets to celebrate freedom, democracy, and independence while another nation shoots rockets in an act of belligerence and aggression toward the nation of freedom, democracy, and independence. Based on that alone, it's easy to see who the good guys are in this international chess match.

As it appears, the North Koreans staged a mock attack of a foe, presumably the United States, which fizzled. By last count, seven missiles have been fired and none went more than a few hundred miles. More test-firings have been promised. However, even its largest missile, the multistage Taepodong-2 ballistic missile, which is believed to be capable of hitting Alaska or possibly the U.S. west coast, blew up before its second stage could ignite.

Consequently, as a direct, immediate threat to the United States, North Korea isn't. That may be Kim Jong-il's biggest personal failure. The U.S. just doesn't pay enough attention to him. Kim Jong-il wants to be a major player in world affairs but he's largely ignored. So he rattles his saber, acting more like a kid throwing a tantrum than a powerful warrior.

To digress momentarily, I'm reminded of the 1959 Peter Sellers' movie, The Mouse That Roared. The plot has the Duchy of Grand Fenwick deciding that the only way to survive is to declare war on the United States, lose and get foreign aid. Consequently, an invasion force of Grand Fenwick longbowmen is sent to New York, prepared to immediately surrender. Obviously it's outrageous fiction and great comedy, but the parallels between Kim Jong-il and the Prime Minister of Grand Fenwick are noteworthy.

However, it's not fiction that North Korea has a highly-developed ballistic missile program, primarily short-range, and is reportedly close to having nuclear warheads for the missiles. Add to that the fact that North Korea has developed strong relationships with enemies of the U.S. (read Iran), and the result is cause of great concern. A nuclear-tipped missile in the hands of Islamic fundamentalists is unacceptable.

But, even with the saber-rattling and the potential threats, Kim Jong-il does not come off as a powerful warrior or great statesman. Granted, he's bothersome, but still a little communist thug and a regularly recrudescing boil on the ass of human civilization.

From Interested-Participant.

Posted by: Mike Pechar at 11:51 AM | Comments (3) | Add Comment
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Captain's Quarters jumps on the New York Times for blaming the Administration for stalled talks with the Norks. Amazingly, the see the NK counterfeiting operation as unrelated and seemingly unimportant, even at $100million per year:

The fake $100 bills are of such high quality it is almost impossible to distinguish them from the real thing. U.S. officials contend the regime of Kim Jong Il has manufactured and put into circulation tens of millions of these counterfeit bills, labeled supernotes, around the world.

These charges are backed up by the U.S. secret service, which says it has made a connection between the highly deceptive counterfeit notes and North Korea.

"Our investigation has revealed that the supernote continues to be produced and distributed from sources operating out of North Korea," said Michael Merritt, from the U.S. Secret Service.

The crux is: any failure of negotiations is Bush's fault, even if the other side has no interest in good faith negotiations.

Some in Congress want to reward the Nork's bad behavior with more talks and concessions.

You think the Norks are rational? Read this article first. They even rip off the Chinese when they deliver supplies.

Meanwhile, North Korean officials engage in even more bizarre behavior. For example, food and fuel supplies sent to North Korea have been halted, not to force North Korea to stop missile tests or participate in peace talks, but to return the Chinese trains the aid was carried in on. In the last few weeks, the North Koreans have just kept the trains, sending the Chinese crews back across the border. North Korea just ignores Chinese demands that the trains be returned, and insists that the trains are part of the aid program. It's no secret that North Korean railroad stock is falling apart, after decades of poor maintenance and not much new equipment. Stealing Chinese trains is a typical loony-tune North Korean solution to the problem. If the North Koreans appear to make no sense, that's because they don't. Put simply, when their unworkable economic policies don't work, the North Koreans just conjure up new, and equally unworkable, plans. The Chinese have tried to talk the North Koreans out of these pointless fantasies, and for their trouble they have their trains stolen. How do you negotiate under these conditions? No one knows.

Meanwhile, they are threatening more missile tests: "And NBC News, citing unnamed U.S. officials, said preparations seemed to be under way for a second Taepodong test, but the weapon was not yet at the launch pad." The Spook expects this one to fail too, since the design is flawed. more...

Posted by: cbjohnson at 08:42 AM | Comments (6) | Add Comment
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From the Times Online:

NORTH KOREA test-fired at least five missiles early today, defying warnings from foreign governments and risking international action against the isolated Stalinist state.

At dawn local time, there were contradictory reports of the number and type of the missiles, but there appeared to have been more than three separate launches.

Update: the count is now at 7 missiles.

Two of these were medium-range Scud-type missiles, which landed in the sea that divides North Korea from Japan. But at least one may have been a Taepodong-2, a long-range intercontinental missile able to strike Japan, Hawaii and Alaska. “We believe it was the Taepodong-2,” a Pentagon official said.

US officials suggested that that missile had failed 40 seconds after being fired from a site in the northeast of North Korea. None landed close to land or caused any damage.

You know, it is a sad thing when you get a chance to use your missile and it blows 40 seconds after you start...but enough of my personal problems.

It's pretty sad when you try to intimidate the world with your new ICBM and your test shows that they just don't work. We didn't even get a chance to shoot it down. I think they have proven that they are adolescent losers looking for attention and its about time to take care of the problem permanently. Perhaps China has finally had enough after being ignored on this issue.

Update: CNN drops a bomb:

The senior State Department official said the launches were timed to coincide with the launch of the space shuttle Discovery from Florida, calling it “a provocative act designed to get attention."

Posted by: cbjohnson at 10:14 PM | No Comments | Add Comment
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They threatened the US with nuclear annihilation yesterday:

North Korea would respond to a pre-emptive U.S. military attack with an “annihilating strike and a nuclear war,” the state-run media said Monday, heightening anti-U.S. rhetoric amid close scrutiny of its missile program.

The Korean Central News Agency, citing an unidentified Rodong Sinmun newspaper “analyst,” accused the United States of increasing military pressure on the isolated communist state and basing new spy planes on the Korean Peninsula.

The North Korean threat of retaliation, which is often voiced by its state-controlled media, comes amid U.S. official reports that Pyongyang has shown signs of preparing for a test of a long-range missile. North Korea claims it has the right to such a launch.

On Friday, Pyongyang accused the United States of driving the situation on the Korean Peninsula “to the brink of war,” and said it is fully prepared to counter any U.S. aggression.

Shoot down their missile, please. Cut off all aid to the morons. Let them starve in the cold until they decide to get rid of the Dear Leader and join the civilized world. Did I mention that 10 Iranian missile engineers went to NK to help with the missile prep?

More on why it is an evil place:

As a trained pediatrician, Vollertsen was particularly moved by the fate of North Korea’s children. Outside Pyongyang, malnutrition is widespread and often severe. On trips to Nampo, a port city a short drive southwest of Pyongyang, he regularly spotted gangs of children working on a 10-lane highway, the kind of grandiose trophy project North Korea loves to build. There were thousands of kids, some as young as eight, breaking rocks with hammers and hauling them in wheel- barrows or makeshift backpacks.

Posted by: cbjohnson at 05:58 AM | Comments (4) | Add Comment
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Via Spook86, the Financial Times is reporting that the North Koreans plan to test a missile with enough range to hit the Continental United States:

Test preparations are far more advanced than on previous occasions when North Korea appeared to be gearing up for a launch. The Taepodong-2 is a two, or three, stage “integrated” missile. The three-stage version consists of a solid-fuel booster rocket strapped atop a Scud missile attached in turn to a short-range Nodong missile.

The US is monitoring the launch site to see if North Korea starts final assembly of the missile. If North Korea fuelled an assembled Taepodong-2, it would increase the probability of a test, since the move is difficult and dangerous to reverse.

Sure, the missile sounds like jury-rigged mess...but when equipped with a nuclear warhead, it is a dangerous jury-rigged mess. From the Spook: "Some analysts have speculated that NK may be using the preparations to gain attention from the U.S. and South Korea. With no substantial progress in the six-party nuclear talks, Kim Jong-il may attempt to restart the process--on his terms--by reminding the other parties that he has nuclear weapons, and with the TD-2, a mechanism for striking targets well beyond the peninsula."

I think that can be summarized as nuclear blackmail. And it points up why we need to resolve the Iranian nuclear crisis before it reaches the same stage.

Posted by: cbjohnson at 06:01 AM | Comments (2) | Add Comment
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Watch these vidoes. Try not to cry. Do get angry. Despite being the world's number one recipient of food aid, millions continue to starve in the gulag that is North Korea. more...

Posted by: Rusty at 05:11 PM | Comments (6) | Add Comment
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