It's official: war between Ethiopia and the African Taliban of the Islamic Courts Union of Somalia. The Somalian Islamists have declared jihad against Ethiopia and Ethiopia has sent troops into Somalia.

We have been warning the world about the rise of the Islamic Courts Union for some time now. The dhimmis of the European Union and the US State Department have repeated the mistakes of Afghanistan and some even welcomed the Islamists to power by declaring that at least the group would bring stability.

But stability at what price? The same stability bought by years of ignoring the growing threat of Taliban Afghanistan.

Many of the so-called warlords of Somalia, such as Mohammed Farah Aidid, were intimately connected to the global jihad. It was Osama bin Laden's succesful support of Aidid that seems to have convinced him and many of his followers that 'the Shiekh' possessed mystical foretelling powers.

It seems that both the Europeans and the State Department have awakened to the threat posed by the Salafi jihadis in Somalia. In our public statements we hope for a diplomatic solution, but privately, it seems, we know with whom our collective fates lie. We hope that the State Department's continued calls for diplomacy are simply tactical. Perhaps they believe we can win by keeping the war a matter internal to Somalia? We cannot imagine that they belive their own press.

Like the Afghani Taliban before them, the Islamic Courts Union declares that all they want is peace, stability, and prosperity. But in deeds they are receiving funding from Islamists around the world --including reliable reports that al Qaeda and other foreign jihadis have flocked to the country-- and they are aready exporting jihad. If Somalia completely falls to the Islamic Courts Union it will become a haven for international terrorism and Salafi jihad.

That is why the US military has been quietly aiding the Ethiopian and other governments in the Horn of Africa. The US has a large presence in the neighboring country of Djibouti.

The US military has recently helped flood relief efforts in Ethiopia. The US has also been quietly training the Ethiopian military for the fight to come with the Somalian Islamists.

US military observers are also in neighboring Kenya.

Now, for the first time, the Ethipian government is admitting that it has sent troops into Somalia. Civilians are clearing out as the battlefield is prepared to go from small to large-scale war.

The question remains, though, whether or not the war can be contained in Somalia? The African Taliban of Somalia are being supported by Eritrea. Eritrea and Ethiopia have been involved in several hot wars recently and many consider the present Somalian conflict to be a proxy war between the two states.

These analysts are wrong only inasmuch as they fail to comprehend the global dimensions of the conflict. Somalia is the battleground for a proxy war, but not simply between Eritrea and Ethiopia--it is a proxy war between global Islamists forces trying to establish a foothold for the future caliphate against the West.

This explains Iran's involvement in aiding the Somali Islamists. Even though they come from different branches of Islam, the Sunni Islamic Courts Union and the Shia Mullahs of Iran share a hatred for secularism, liberalism, and the West. Further, they share the goal of sharia and the Caliphate. Where they part company is over who's sharia and where the Caliph should live--Tehran or Baghdad?

Such long-term differences are easily overlooked when short term interests are congruent. The Iranians help Sunni groups such as Hamas and the Islamic Court's Union in efforts to defeat common enemies and win future influence.

This is The Clash of Civilizations. We can hope and pretend that such a global clash does not exist, but it does. This is reality. Why is this clash being fought in Somalia? Simple, because Ethiopia is bordered by Muslim states. As Huntington said, in his prophetic book that now seems like it was published an eternity ago: the borders of Islam are bloody.

Ethiopia can wait for the Islamic Courts Union to solidify power and then begin to export jihad or it can go to Somalia and fight. And for the US, we have the same options: wait for another bin Ladenist state to emerge and then suffer the consequences or choose strategic allies now and make sure they win.

Unfortunately, it's not always easy to see which allies have a chance and which don't. In the present conflict, the CIA already picked the wrong horses by supplying arms to Somali clan leaders who were easily beaten by the jihadis. We already tried to contain the fight to Somalians fighting other Somalians, but failed.

Now open war looms. The US should make it clear which side of this conflict we are on. We stand with Ethiopia and Somalians who are terrified of the coming sharia state. A state which outlaws music and proscribes the death penalty for any Muslim who should dare renounce his religion.

Supporting Ethiopia is not only the right thing to do, it is also in our national interest. Several press accounts below. I'd urge you to notice that the African Taliban have now declared jihad, or holy war against Ethiopia. I have a feeling they don't mean an inner struggle kind of jihad. Both sides are now sending troops to the front lines and are digging in. Be skeptical of numbers, though, as eye witness accounts are generally inflated by civilians in fear of the coming conflict.

The Star (South Africa):

Ethiopia has completed preparations for war with neighbouring Somalia's Islamist movement, alongside faltering peace efforts.

Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi said yesterday that the Islamists, who have declared holy war on Ethiopian troops deployed to Somalia to protect the weak internationally backed Somali government, represented a "clear and present danger" to his country.

Less than a hour after Meles' announcement, the Islamists gathered in a war council in Mogadishu and said they were ready to defend Somalia from invasion by a "reckless and war-thirsty" Ethiopia.

"This group represents a clear threat to Ethiopia," Meles told lawmakers in Addis Ababa....

With a large ethnic Somali population, Ethiopia fears radicalisation of its sizeable Muslim minority by the Islamists, who have imposed strict Sharia law in areas they control.

Somalia's Islamic Courts said on Saturday that it had poured thousands of fighters and heavy equipment into frontline positions as they braced for clashes with the weak government and its Ethiopian allies.

The courts said it had reinforced areas outside the government seat of Baidoa, about 250km northwest of Mogadishu, anticipating imminent attack and accusing neighbouring Ethiopia of sending air power. ....

The courts have declared holy war on Ethiopian troops in Somalia protecting the transitional government.

Robow said his fighters had full confidence in winning the battle against the "forces of the devil"....

Fighters from all sides are encamped at positions less than 20km apart, near the court-held towns of Mode Mode and Burhakaba areas.

WaPo:

Hundreds of Ethiopian troops arrived to protect Somalia's government Friday as witnesses said a powerful Islamic militia massed nearby, raising concerns of clashes between the two forces.

More than 130 trucks carried the Ethiopians into Baidoa, the only town controlled by the government, residents said....

Residents as far away as Bur Hakaba _ 40 miles east of Baidoa _ were evacuating.

"We are seeing strong military movements from both sides," said Mohamud Ahmed, a father of six. "We don't believe we will be able to continue living in our town peacefully."

Ethiopia said on Saturday it did not need the blessing of major ally, the United States, or any country to defend itself from any threat from neighbouring Somalia where Islamists have launched a holy war.

Prime Minister Meles Zenawi pledged to explore all means to peacefully resolve the bitter standoff between his country, which backs the interim government in Somalia, and the Islamists, who control much of southern Somalia.

The Islamists have declared jihad against Ethiopia, accusing it of sending troops into Somalia to prop up the government. "It is our country that is being attacked. Naturally, we do not seek any light, green, red or yellow from anyone to protect ourselves," Meles told a news conference.

"If, and when, we are convinced that all options of resolving the invasion through peaceful means are exhausted, only then we may act to respond in kind," he said, adding the Islamists had trained, armed and smuggled hundreds of Ethiopian rebels into the country.

Meles said he had explained Ethiopia's position on Somalia to Western powers, who have scrambled to respond to the Somali crisis since Islamists seized Mogadishu in June in a direct challenge to the Addis Ababa-backed interim government. "Both Brussels and Washington appear to believe that any military response on our part might be counter-productive, saying that dialogue is the best way forward," Meles said.

"We too agree that dialogue is the best way, nevertheless as the direct victims of the aggression, we feel we might be forced at some stage to respond with force." Senior Islamist Sheikh Sharif Ahmed has accused Washington of giving Ethiopia the go-ahead to fight his movement.

CAMP LEMONIER, Djibouti, , Oct. 22, 2006 – Doing good here in the Horn of Africa is a key to ensuring that terrorism doesn't gain a foothold in the region, the commander of Combined Joint Task Force Horn of Africa told visiting civilian leaders yesterday.....

"The conditions out there to support terrorism are ripe," Hunt told the group of business, academic and community leaders. "Our job is to diffuse that situation."

As Hunt sees it, the United States and its coalition partners have two basic choices. "Africa is the new frontier that we need to engage with now, or we are going to end up doing it later in a very negative way," he said....

Hunt calls this work "phase zero" of warfare, aimed at preventing the conflict before it starts. "What we're trying to do here is change the conditions and the environment people exist in to keep that kind of conflict from happening," he said.

Part of those efforts goes toward ensuring host nation militaries have the capabilities they need to defend their governments. Special operations forces here travel throughout the region, teaching not just military skills, but also about human rights and the law of armed conflict-relatively foreign concepts for regional militaries, Hunt told the group....

A visit to the CJFT-HOA headquarters here and communities in the region reveals the faces of the other, less traditional warriors in the fight against terrorism here.

They're doctors like Army Lt. Col. Dan Shoor, who goes out with his team into local villages to treat patients and share medical expertise with local care providers. They're civil affairs specialists like Army Spc. Eric Hayes, an Army Reservist from Florida who coordinates with local officials to identify community needs and help come up with a plan to address them. They're Seabees like Navy Petty Officer 1st Class Dennis Ryan, who's building a dormitory at a local school so young girls from distant villages can get an education.

Through these efforts, members of CJTF-HOA say they're establishing trust and building relationships that not only improve people's lives, but also discourage terrorist ambitions.

"We're about rebuilding countries that need help and building a partnership with the U.S.," said Hayes. "We're winning hearts and minds, hands down. So if al Qaeda were to move into this area, the people here would choose to side with us."

"You don't want another Afghanistan, with (terrorists) coming in here," said Navy Petty Officer Tensely Worthy, who supports law enforcement and security operations here. "We're here showing the people here a better life, helping them become self-sufficient and helping them realize that you don't have to succumb to terrorism," he said.

Yeah, I realize Vinnie already covered this below, but his whole "African-American African Taliban" thing is a kind of inside joke that I'm afraid few people get. It comes from a reader's comment.

Posted by: Rusty at 12:28 PM | Comments (13) | Add Comment
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