December 29, 2006

The Qana Ambulances : The Hoax that Wasn't

UPDATE : The Human Rights Watch report referred to the "SPIKE" and "DIME" missiles as follows:

Israel has continuously advanced its drone-fired missiles, such as the STRIKE missile and the still-experimental DIME missile, so that they are capable of limited damage to their targets.
Not surprisingly, the report fails to provide any substantiation of the existence of a drone-fired STRIKE missile or DIME missile.

According to the latest report from Human Rights Watch, the Qana ambulances weren't hit by Hellfire missiles launched from IAF airplanes. I seem to recall telling the world that four months ago. At any rate, now they're putting forth a new theory: the Qana ambulances were hit by SPIKE or "DIME" missiles launched from "Israeli drones."

The report doesn't specify what it means by "Israeli drones," but I'm assuming the authors meant Predator UAVs or something similar in use by the IAF. Other than the vague references to "Israeli drones," the report gives no attention to what forms of UAVs are presently in use by the IDF, what their various capabilities are, whether any armed UAVs were in service in the Qana area at the time of the attack, or what efforts were put forth by the authors to investigate any of the above.

The authors of the report didn't bother to authenticate whether there even is a version of the SPIKE missile or "DIME missile" suitable for use with UAVs. As near as I've been able to tell, there is no missile in the Israeli arsenal called "DIME." There is a "SPIKE" missile, produced by Israeli arms manufacturer Rafael. I did a little bit of research and determined that there is a version of the SPIKE missile which is compatible with UAVs. More info here. (Now, if the report authors had really cared to produce a real "in-depth report," my own independent research wouldn't have been necessary.)

MORE BELOW THE FOLD
At any rate, the SPIKE missile is indeed capable of being launched from a drone, so it is possible that:
SPIKE missiles could have been loaded onto an "Israeli drone" of some type, and

an armed drone could have been flying in the vicinity of Qana, and

an armed drone could have launched its missiles at a pair of ambulances near Qana, and

those missiles could have struck the ambulances.

If a SPIKE missile can be loaded onto some type of drone in use by the IDF, each of these things is theoretically possible. Beyond that, however, the Human Rights Watch theory breaks down.

Even if these relatively small missiles were used, and the missiles' warhesds didn't detonate, there would still be approximately 70 pounds of mass striking the ambulances, and then the pavement underneath, at a velocity of over five hundred miles per hour.

Now, granted, this isn't as much kinetic energy as a Hellfire missile, not to mention a Maverick, but it's still a heck of a lot of energy. Roughly the amount of energy in a 3,000 lb. sedan traveling at 70 mph, if I didn't screw up my calculations. Folks, that kind of energy doesn't just disappear into thin air when it hits the ground. It goes places. It does things. Violent things.

In order to believe the Human Rights Watch report, you have to be willing to believe that one missile, after passing through one ambulance and to the pavement with all the kinetic energy of a car traveling at 70 mph, made a four-inch pock mark in the asphalt and vanished. You further have to be willing to believe that another missile passed through the roof of a second ambulance at a speed of over 500-mph, whereupon it vanished without damaging the vehicle's floor panel or causing any fire damage to the vehicle's upholstery. Then it "magically" caused a pock-mark in the asphalt below. Amazing.

Now, the Human Rights Watch report claims that the missiles did, in fact, detonate inside the ambulances. The report claims, however, that these missiles just don't do that much when they detonate. Think of them, in other words, as very high velocity M-80s. The authors provide no meaningful evidence to back up this assertion. I don't have numbers as to the warhead mounted on the business end of a SPIKE missile, but the following videos depict SPIKE missiles hitting various military vehicles and detonating. Judge for yourself as to what this level of excitement would do to the interior of a Volkswagen Vanagon:

Posted by: Ragnar at 01:50 AM | Comments (14) | Add Comment
Post contains 744 words, total size 6 kb.

1 Yeah! I saw a lot of stuff on the Spike-ER specifically, in the last hour. One spike variant only goes about 200-250 mph (unless it was a typo), probably so it can be guided manually, but I was up all night, and can't remember.

In any case one report says it is in service, but isn't preferred over the TOW system for the same kinds of jobs. No report by any source that I saw said they were actually being deployed on drones. Your reference not withstanding.

The Spike-ER warhead is the larger one. I see nothing that would prevent any variant of 'Spike' from ripping an ambulance to shreds.

Remember that a shaped charge anti-armor warhead uses the reaction of the charge, not its concusiveness. That means heat, and that means vaporizing steel. That means cooking the inside of the ambulance, occupants included.

Even the old panzerfaust could blast through 200mm of steel on average. An RPG-7 should be good for 330mm if I recall. The old TOW system could do at least 500mm, and TOW2 could do over 1100mm of steel. Hellfire was suppossed to be able to get through more than the TOW2. I hear that the Javelin penetrates even better still.

Also the 'Spike' is considered an anti-armor weapon, so it will have to be at least as good as TOW, and pushing hard on TOW2 to even be considered by Israel, or the US. If not, why bother? Just use rockets.

One reason for using 'Spike' was cost. Well if you knew what the hellfire targeting system was capable of, you would understand the price issue, and why it exists. 'Spike' has a decent system, but not as cool as Hellfire. It can still multi-target though.

Technically, it would allow two ambulances to be blasted at once. BLASTED! That is ...

I'll come back and play some more later. I should be able to add to this.

USA, all the way.

Posted by: Michael Weaver at December 29, 2006 06:53 AM (2OHpj)

2 Maybe the ambulances were attacked by those robot soldiers I've been hearing about. Those Jews are tricky, dont'cha know.

Posted by: Jeff Bargholz at December 29, 2006 07:01 AM (abVz3)

3 DIME does not refer to a Missile, it is a new type of weapon - it stands for Dense Inert Metal Explosive:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dense_Inert_Metal_Explosive

It was specially created to keep civilian casualties to a minimum - DAMN THOSE BLOOD THIRSTY JoOOo's!!
now of course the lefties are claiming it's very bad, and is a chemical weapon and all the usual nonsense.

Posted by: davec at December 29, 2006 03:13 PM (yaQM4)

4 davec;
If DIME is 'bad' I guess they have to go back to heavy artillery, and cluster bombs. To bad huh? Maybe they could bring back flame throwers, or the concept of carpet bombing.

USA, all the way!

Posted by: Michael Weaver at December 29, 2006 05:24 PM (2OHpj)

5 The report doesn't specify what it means by "Israeli drones,"

That is HRW's new politically correct term for "Jew", or "neocon" if you like. As in the phrase: "The Israeli drones are responsible for all the world's wars and for the destruction of ambulances."

Posted by: Chuck at December 29, 2006 10:53 PM (09chD)

6 HRW, and other that seem to believe that a missile strike occurred, miss the most telling evidence of all.

No missile ever travels straight down when attacking a target as no known airborne missile platform can fire a missile straight down. Yet HRW and others show 'proof' that a missile struck straight down from above. Even the supposed 'proof' submitted by the photos of the holes in the pavement shows that the missiles came in straight down, and that just doesn't happen with a missile strike.

Any missile that is fired from an airborne platform would strike the target at an angle and none of the evidence submitted shows this. What did the authors of the report think, that a missile is hung straight down from under the drone and is fired downwards? No, they are hung horizontally and are fired outward as the exhaust from a missile would affect the launching platform adversity when fired downward. Does HRW really believe that a drone could survive the missile exhaust if fired downward? That exhaust would most likely destroy the drone, yet no evidence of a downed drone has been provided.

Has anyone actually developed an inert mass missile that can attack straight down from the top? The only missiles that I know of that attack downward from the top of a target are a few antitank missiles that fire their warhead downward after flying over the target. As HRW reports that none of these types of missiles were used, that is an implausible augment.

HRW contends that an inert type of missile warhead was used in the attack, but those types of missiles would still attack at an angle and would not strike straight down as HRW proposes. Also, some shrapnel from the missile would survive the attack and none was found. Traces of the warhead would be visible at and around the impact site, yet none has been found.

So ether the Israeli military have developed a new type of missile that completely disappears after impact and is capable of striking straight down into a target after being fired from an airborne platform, or HRW doesn't know much about the capabilities and restrictions inherent in any type of missile attack and is using any argument it can to support it's preexisting belief that a missile attack occurred. My guess would be the latter.

Posted by: Ray at December 30, 2006 01:13 PM (ir8/l)

7 Ray:
 
Overall an excellent points.
 
Even if Spike uses a lofted trajectory, it should still come down at closer to a 45 degree angle, as oppossed to straight down.
 
USA, all the way!

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