August 15, 2006

Stratfor on the cease-fire

Stratfor on the Israel-Lebanon cease-fire:

All [Hezbollah] did was survive and, at the end of the war, retain its ability to threaten Israel with such casualties that Israel declined extended combat. Hezbollah did not defeat Israel on the battlefield. The group merely prevented Israel from defeating it. And that outcome marks a political and psychological triumph for Hezbollah and a massive defeat for Israel. ...

[W]hen a reality that has dominated a region for 58 years is shattered, it is historic. Perhaps this paves the way to new wars. Perhaps Olmert's restraint opens the door for some sort of stable peace. But from where we sit, he was sufficiently aggressive to increase hostility toward Israel without being sufficiently decisive to achieve a desired military outcome.

Hezbollah and Iran hoped for this outcome, though they did not really expect it. They got it. The question on the table now is what they will do with it.

Posted by: Ragnar at 10:55 PM | Comments (11) | Add Comment
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1 " he was sufficiently aggressive to increase hostility toward Israel without being sufficiently decisive to achieve a desired military outcome "    Rash of that going around! Deja Vu all over again!! :-(

Posted by: Last gasp Larry at August 16, 2006 12:20 AM (gLMre)

2 Oh! I forgot ......  Fore!

Posted by: Last gasp Larry at August 16, 2006 12:21 AM (gLMre)

3 Its a trap!
Israel did it this way on purpose.
As anyone who has dueled with lightsabers knows... sure, cutting off the hand is nice, but if you can sucker the head close enough.. well that works better.

Posted by: JeepThang at August 16, 2006 05:32 AM (yZQoS)

4 Nobody ever took the guy seriously who lost a fight. We have all seen what happens when the loser keeps running his mouth. Eventually he take a haymaker right to the chin; and drops like a bad habit.
 
I don't believe Israel planned to do the job half way. It just turned out like that. They may even change leaders. But they will not change their commitment to National Security.
 
Hezbollah and Iran and Syria can run their mouths all they want. Talk is cheap.

Posted by: SeeMonk at August 16, 2006 06:59 AM (7teJ9)

5 The Israelis, and we here in America, are learning the lessons of what you get when you elect liberals to government. We elected our first liberal President in 1960, and with the sole exception of 1980-1988, have been on a downhill slide ever since. If Americans or Israelis are stupid enough to put liberals in power again after this, we all deserve what we get, because we can't say we didn't know.

Posted by: Improbulus Maximus at August 16, 2006 09:18 AM (v3I+x)

6 I said this several weeks ago, that in ten years when Arab armies are marching on Jerusalem, we will look to this battle with Hesbollah as the beginning of the end for Israel.

Posted by: Jesusland Carlos at August 16, 2006 10:29 AM (8e/V4)

7 One would have to be a true academic ostrich not to see the terrific gains Hezbollah has made. Worse, when Hezbollah wins the filthy Iranian pigs win. Oh no. I did it again. Call the racist police.

Hell, we might even interview their sicko president on national television and beam it all over the world.

Posted by: greyrooster at August 16, 2006 11:55 AM (vCjBd)

8 Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, imitating President Johnson`s command and control, has given Israel their very own "Vietnam." The politico/socio/military damages will not easily be mended. He led his tiny nation headon into a well-organized, armed, motivated guerilla sanctuary which was mentally prepared to: "Lose a hundred battles a week, until you are destroyed!"

And like we did, he agreed to leave before the job was done.

The ramifications are many and broad.
* Israel`s morale is low.
* Islam`s morale is high.
* Iran will listen to no one.
* Iraq opposition will take advantage.
* Muslims will swell with newfound uphoric "honor".
* The GWOT suffered a setback.
* Terrorism will exploit the confusion of our setback.
* The UN will make that exploitation difficult to quash.
* Our President and State Secretary will be endlessly hounded; more than ever.
* Doubters will become more vocal.
* AND most important, the WILL to perservere will start shipping seawater in every compartment!

Israel`s hesitation to accomplish the mission they so clearly stated at the outset had laid the last plank in the road leading to a war with Iran.

And the timing is rotten................because our leadership has to revisit fighting this world war on Marguis De Queensbury rules while the savage in the ring honors no rule!

Patience and common sense are in for hardest test in history.

Semper Fi,

Posted by: forest hunter at August 16, 2006 04:09 PM (TjUVb)

9 Well said Forest Hunter, well said and Semper Fi.

Posted by: greyrooster at August 16, 2006 04:40 PM (wmcSd)

10 With any luck, the Knesset will vote "no confidence" on Olmert and his cabinet very soon, and the Israelis will get smart and elect someone with a brain, spine, and balls.

Posted by: Improbulus Maximus at August 16, 2006 10:48 PM (v3I+x)

11 As they say in the Ghetto. Your rep is everything. Olmert, just hurt Israel's rep. Got to get it back quick. Let these Islamofacists think they can win and things will get worse.

Posted by: greyrooster at August 17, 2006 08:00 AM (W1CgA)

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