August 01, 2006

Qana : IDF Corrects Earlier Statements, Hizb'Allah Story Still Falling Apart

From Ha'aretz:

As the Israel Air Force continues to investigate the air strike, questions have been raised over military accounts of the incident.

It now appears that the military had no information on rockets launched from the site of the building, or the presence of Hezbollah men at the time.

The Israel Defense Forces had said after the deadly air-strike that many rockets had been launched from Qana. However, it changed its version on Monday.

The site was included in an IAF plan to strike at several buildings in proximity to a previous launching site. Similar strikes were carried out in the past. However, there were no rocket launches from Qana on the day of the strike.

I'm sure there will be those who are ready to pounce on the IDF for making an incorrect statement. I'll agree they deserve some criticism for making an incorrect statement. Do they get any credit for correcting it? Isn't the correction itself an indication of something positive? Does anyone remember the last time al Qaeda, Hamas or Hizb'Allah corrected an earlier statement?

The article also notes the strange timing of Hizb'Allah's Qana narrative:

The survivors say rescue teams arrived only in the morning, as night conditions made the rescue mission difficult. The Red Cross in Tyre received a call for help only in the morning, explaining their late arrival.

The media first heard of the bombing at 8 A.M. The foreign press quoted Lebanese sources explaining the late announcement, saying the electricity and phones in the village of Qana were almost entirely cut-off by IAF attacks.

The Hizb'Allah side is apparently sticking to the story that the building collapsed around midnight.

So, if you believe Hizb'Allah, the building collapsed around midnight, with ~50 people inside, including at least 19 children. There were apparently a whole bunch of witnesses to the building's collapse. This didn't happen in the middle of nowhere. After the building collapsed, the villagers leapt to action and... did what? Were there any survivors under the rubble? Did the villagers attempt to find out? Did they care? Did they dive into the wreckage to save any of their loved ones who may have survived the building's collapse? It doesn't appear so. Israel Insider notes that

Lebanese rescue teams did not start evacuating the building until the morning and only after the camera crews came. The absence of a real rescue effort was explained by saying that equipment was lacking. There were no scenes of live or injured people being extracted.

From what we can tell, the villagers did exactly NOTHING in the wake of the collapse. We're told the villagers didn't dig into the rubble to search for survivors because... well, there were "conditions," you see, and they were... well, they were "NIGHT conditions." And you know how those night conditions are. They're all, ya know, "night-ish" & dark & stuff. Somebody might trip or something. There might be ghosts. The villagers apparently couldn't call anyone because all communications lines (wired and wireless) out of Qana were completely cut off between midnight and 7:00 am. They couldn't send anyone up the road to Tyre (15 miles away) to get help because... well, we're not really sure why no one did that, but I'm sure there will be some explanation. Or there won't.

The more we hear about the events at Qana, the less Hizb'Allah's story makes any sense at all.

Posted by: Ragnar at 01:20 PM | Comments (24) | Add Comment
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1 Despite the evidence which shreds the conspiracy theories, including the admission of guilt by Al Queda, there are still those that readily believe that 9/11 was an inside job. Qana is no different. Hizb'allah could release a statement like "Yes we staged it, stuffing the building with dead kids and then bringing it down. Whatcha gonna do about?" The Israelis would still be blamed until the end of time for it.

Posted by: Graeme at August 01, 2006 02:16 PM (5Yhea)

2 Notice how Haaretz couldn't/didn't want to name any names of their "IDF sources"...

Posted by: Ariya at August 01, 2006 02:25 PM (yHb0A)

3 Ariya -

I guess you lost me. Isn't that the normal course of business for undisclosed sources--i.e., that their identity not be disclosed?

Posted by: The All-Seeing Eye at August 01, 2006 02:28 PM (c/4ax)

4 Graeme,
 
Or, to put the shoe on the other foot, Israel could apologize for the unintentional killings of civilians at Qana, admit their responsibility, and people here would still believe it was Hezbollah that faked it.
 
Oh wait, that's already happened.

Posted by: notdj at August 01, 2006 02:29 PM (aqTJB)

5 Graeme -

Unfortunately, I think you're probably dead-on in that assessment.

Posted by: The All-Seeing Eye at August 01, 2006 02:30 PM (c/4ax)

6 notdj -
 
You're apparently ready to swallow the Hizb'Allah line despite the fact that nothing about the story makes sense.
 
Assuming the facts are as the villagers present them, can you even begin to explain the bizarre behavior of the locals?  If you knew people were trapped under a building and there were no rescue workers available, would you stand around for eight hours for someone to do something, or would you get in and try to do something?  Even if you weren't sure whether to dig, wouldn't you call the rescue teams up the road, or go get them, if necessary?  Would the arrival of the news cameras have any effect on your behavior one way or the other?
 
Once you started digging, and you found a dead baby in the rubble, would you spend all day dancing around with it for the benefit of the news cameras, or would you go back to digging, hoping, even against hope, that someone might still be alive under there?
 
You wouldn't--unless you knew for a fact that there were no living people in the rubble.
 
Botom line: this story is as fishy as a wharf.  Why do you find that so hard to admit?

Posted by: All-Seeing Eye at August 01, 2006 02:42 PM (c/4ax)

7 All-Seeing Eye: notjd is a self-loathing Jew. He will never admit anything good about Israel, America, or the West so long as a potential negative is in sight.

Posted by: The Dread Pundit Bluto at August 01, 2006 03:06 PM (vBK4C)

8 It isn't that fishy to me, although I'm willing to see what trained forensic experts say about claims about the state of the bodies, etc. 
 
As for the pause--hell, it's in the middle of a war zone, Israeli jets overhead, missiles falling.  Do you think people are going to rush out of their own shelters when they hear a large explosion?  Me, I'd burrow down until I was sure it was safe. 
 
So it doesn't seem suspicious that the rescue operations begin in the morning.  And again, where do they get those dead bodies?  Whose are they?  they don't seem all that worried about people recognizing their faces.  Imagine you are some Christian Arab in Lebanon, and you see Hezbollah waving your mother's corpse around, saying she was killed in a bombing by the Israelis, and you know she was killed last week of heart attack.  And buried for all you knew.

If your conspiracy theory is true, where do they find these bodies? 
 
I do think Hezbollah is inviting reporters in, parading the bodies before the media.  Absolutely.  From their perspective, it is inconceivable that the world still sees them as the agressors, and not Israel.  I'm closer to seeing it Israel's way most of the time, but I'm trying to understand why they parade with their dead.  It is an attempt to affect world opinion. 
 
It does not mean this tragedy was staged in some way.  Was the 100 dead in 96 in Qana staged?  Sabra and Shatila?  Sometimes, Israel is culpable in terrible things.  I say this as a man who believes in their right to exist in a safe and secure nation, at peace with its neighbors.  They, like all nations, have a right to self-defense.

I do, incidentally, very much like the suggestion by Totten that what they should have done is bomb Syria for every missile from hezbollah.  In addition, they should have attacked the south only.  The attack on the power plant on the coast has been a disaster, a half-Valdez in a very small sea. 

Posted by: notdj at August 01, 2006 03:10 PM (aqTJB)

9 Oh, and yes, the IDF gets points for correcting its misstatement.  That's what honest bloggers and institutions do.

Posted by: notdj at August 01, 2006 03:10 PM (aqTJB)

10 notdj -

I'm not going to say I know for the fact I'd have the courage to dig through the rubble in a war zone to try to save people trapped in it. I can't say that because I've never been in that situation. I'd like to think I'd have the intestinal fortitude to take a chance if I could help someone else. I'd like to think other folks would do the same thing if I were trapped. I'd hate to think "I'd burrow down until I knew it was safe" and ignore the fact that people may be dying while I was hiding. Frankly, the thought makes me ill. I believe that even the bad guys love their own children. Maybe I'm wrong.

If we can believe Hizb'Allah, there are 400 or so dead bodies of "civilians" in southern Lebanon. Around 30 dead children were on display in Tyre just a day earlier. No one's saying conclusively that these children didn't die as a result of IAF airstrikes. It's not unlikely that they did--but that's not even close to the point.

The fact that Sabra and Shatila happened doesn't mean that Jenin happened or that Mohammed al-Duri really died. I happen to believe that the truth matters. Should we PRETEND that Jenin and al-Duri did happen, since they might have happened if the world had been different? What sense does that make? If a bad thing happened, we should admit it. If it didn't really happen, however, there's no reason to act as if it really did happen.

Given the world situation, we could conceive of Hizb'Allah shooting a missile at a ship evacuating US citizens from Beirut. If there's an unexplained explosion on one of those ships, should we ASSUME that it's a Hizb'Allah missile without further inquiry, or should we pay attention to the EVIDENCE? I know plenty of lefties who'll never believe the official story on 911 no matter how much evidence might come to light. I'll bet a lot of those same folks are ready to swallow Hizb'Allah's story without a second thought.

Back to Qana, Hizb'Allah apparently wants a replay of 1996. Yhe story that Hizb'Allah wants to tell about Qana 2006 is looking less and less like a true story. Some are saying it doesn't matter whether it REALLY happened, since it COULD HAVE happened. I find that position ridiculous.

Posted by: The All-Seeing Eye at August 01, 2006 04:03 PM (c/4ax)

11 I do not subscribe to the "conspiracy theory."
However that being said, one thing is apparent -- the Jihadi's have found a way to neutralize both Israel and the U.S militaries superior technology of precision air-strikes, by ensuring civilian casualties they know they can turn the Muslim world, and most of the International community opinions by making sure pictures of dead Women and Children are shown all over the world.
The strength of a Guerilla war is the ability to completely bog down a conventional military response -- by removing the ability to destroy terrorists with air firepower, it ensures that troops have to be committed and fight hand to hand, and this is how the Jihadi's love it, this allows them to attack supply lines with IED's, to use civilian's as cover, and fight in civilian clothing and do all of the things that give them an advantage over the military who follow the rules of war.

Posted by: davec at August 01, 2006 04:25 PM (voZp6)

12 Eye--you make good points.  I'm certainly not one of those who says it doesn't matter what the truth is.  It matters intensely. 
 
And yes, if I knew that the building down the street had been blown apart, I'd go help if I could.  My point is that in the midst of a bombardment, you don't know what has happened down the street.  In the dark, with no civil defense units, with no lights, with no ambulances, with no fire trucks, with no winches or cranes...it seems a lot to ask that the Lebanese immediately organize into rescue missions.  I don't think it is because they are cowards who don't love their children or their fellow citizens.

Did they pick up bodies from one bombing, and transport them en masse to Qana?  I guess it is possible, although driving a truck through that part of Southern Lebanon is sort of like signing your own death warrant.  It would take some pretty convincing evidence to sway me to that.  Occam's Razor still points towards an Israeli strike that went badly awry.  But let's see what further investigation brings.

Posted by: notdj at August 01, 2006 04:25 PM (aqTJB)

13 Eye, I suspect Hezballah's propaganda isn't the only thing of theirs jd is eager to swallow.

Posted by: Improbulus Maximus at August 01, 2006 04:34 PM (v3I+x)

14 There have been a lot of Jewish women, and children murdered by the likes of Hizboallah. Maybe, Hizboallah is finding out, it does not feel so good. War sucks.

Posted by: Leatherneck at August 01, 2006 05:25 PM (D2g/j)

15 There have been a lot of Jewish women, and children murdered by the likes of Hizboallah. Maybe, Hizboallah is finding out it does not feel so good. War sucks.

Posted by: Leatherneck at August 01, 2006 05:26 PM (D2g/j)

16 >>>However, there were no rocket launches from Qana on the day of the strike.

If there were no rocket launches from Qana on the day of the strike, it becomes hard to argue that it was a Hesbollah setup. Am I missing something here?

Posted by: Jesusland Carlos at August 01, 2006 05:48 PM (8e/V4)

17 notdj -

I'm not claiming the Lebanese are cowards. If they knew that there were no living people in the building to begin with, there would be no reason to get agitated about the bodies in the rubble. Only if there was a chance that a living person might die would there be any reason to be concerned. If you knew for a fact that every body in the building was already dead, there is no need for immediacy and hiding becomes completely defensible.

As to how much we can reasonably expect from the civilians, remember that eight hours went by. It wasn't a thirty minute delay, or even an hour delay. This was an eight hour delay. No effort to search for survivors. No calls for help. No digging, no calls to the Red Cross, no calls to the nearby city of Tyre, no calls to reporters, no messengers to Tyre. No action for EIGHT HOURS.

In my opinion, this is strange--but only if the people in the building were alive when it collapsed.

If the bodies were placed there, I seriously doubt that the bodies were from a single incident. If they were, why move them? Instead, the children were more likely the casualties of a number of different airstrikes, none particularly dramatic by itself.

Posted by: The All-Seeing Eye at August 01, 2006 06:17 PM (c/4ax)

18 JC -

I don't see that at all, so long as the IAF behaves in a somewhat predictable pattern. The absence of missile launches on that day plays directly into Hizb'Allah's "IAF is targeting civilians" theme. The only question is whether you can force an airstrike on a day when rockets aren't flying. Hizb'Allah would know that based on IAF targeting patterns. With a few experiments, they could gain insight into how the IAF will react to a given situation and manipulate accordingly. It's not necessary to pick a particular building, or even a particular village--though there is a certain poetry to using Qana. I can definitely see a game plan put together in advance looking something like this:

1. Fire shitloads of rockets from Qana, thereby reserving Qana a good spot on the "high-value targets" list.

2. Await an airstrike on a suitable building.

3. Collect corpses

4. Load the building full of corpses.

5. Blow the building.

6. Call the media.

Is that so hard to believe?

Posted by: The All-Seeing Eye at August 01, 2006 06:57 PM (c/4ax)

19 On this subject I'm wondering whether I should believe a civilized people whose creed is "Thou shalt not lie"; or a bunch of callous murderous brutes whose creed is to resort to "Taqqiyah = falsification" and "Kitman = obfuscation"?!? Hmmmmmmmm?!?!?!?!?

Posted by: Garduneh Mehr at August 01, 2006 07:22 PM (Bp6wV)

20 You know , If I had not posted on that pro hezbollah professor just before this happened and saw how they use the dead bodies of children for propaganda I might half ass believe them.  Sorry no matter what the truth is I discount it somewhat becuase I know they are using it (sensationalizing it).  Also this is a 24/7 story in the ME. Bigger than here by far and here it's big.  It's the thing like nightline and the first gulf war was here.

Posted by: Howie at August 01, 2006 08:31 PM (D3+20)

21 The All-Seeing Eye,
I just read a very interesting article on the implications of the Qana incident for the Muslime mind called "Why Should Muslims pray for Israel?" http://www.news.faithfreedom.org/index.php?name=News&file=article&sid=306


Posted by: Garduneh Mehr at August 01, 2006 08:33 PM (Bp6wV)

22 Here's what real victims look like being pulled from the rubble. They look a lot like the bodies of my friends that I pulled out of rubble back in 1983.

http://www.ogrish.com/archives/rocket_attack_israel_Aug_01_2006.html

Not those moulaged up bodies the Hezbillies recycled.

Posted by: Barney Coppersmith at August 01, 2006 10:47 PM (2BOvC)

23 I just posted on my blog about a whole string of questions that I have concerning the behaviour of the rescuers.(it is along the lines of all-seeing-eyes thinking)

I end with this, because to me this is the essential question.
Did the rescuers know there was no one alive to hurry for? Or did they not care?

That to me is the essential question.
Because if my child was trapped in the rubble and I saw Green Helmet and White T-Shirt doing the dead baby parade I would be mighty sore and Green Helmet and White T-Shirt would find themselves mighty sore as well.

We may not get the answers to any of the questions to anyones satisfaction.
BTW, there was of course a delay between the reports of missiles coming out of Qana and the bombing of Qana. Israel sent leaflets and warnings to the people to leave as they intended to bomb the area, and gave the people of the area several DAYS to leave...which of course would give Hezzbullah time to leave as well. It pushes them back, hopefully further, into Lebanon, further from Israel, and the strikes would then prevent FUTURE bombings as they would have less places to hide, and would be more visible to ground troops. At least that is my way of thinking.

Posted by: Rachel Ann at August 04, 2006 02:05 AM (yKZpp)

24 btw, concerning the lack of brusing etc. on the bodies...

Here is a picture of a mom and her son who claimed they survived Qana, both of whom did have bruises. http://news.scotsman.com/latest.cfm?id=1127142006
So there is a question as to why the other children don't have bruises. (so perhaps some bodies were brought in?)Even if they suffocated, they aren't likely to have suffocated in ten seconds flat...there should be some sign of bruising or tearing of the skin from the first few moments when the rubble fell on them..crushed heads, wounds etc. There should have been some blood.

Also the pictures don't show that there is a great amount of rubble covering the children. You can see people are partially covered, not completely covered. Faster work, if indeed those children were alive to begin with and not plants, could have saved some more.

Like I said above, either the rescuers knew there was no one to rescue or they didn't care.

Posted by: Rachel Ann at August 04, 2006 02:19 AM (yKZpp)

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