July 13, 2006

Stratfor : Israeli Troops Headed to Bekaa Valley

The latest word from Stratfor:

Most important, Israel is calling up its reserves. This is never a symbolic gesture in Israel. All Israelis below middle age are in the reserves and mobilization is costly in every sense of the word. If the Israelis were planning a routine reprisal, they would not be mobilizing. But they are, which means they are planning to do substantially more than retributive airstrikes. The question is what their plan is.

Given the blockade and what appears to be the shape of the airstrikes, it seems to us at the moment the Israelis are planning to go fairly deep into Lebanon. The logical first step is a move to the Litani River in southern Lebanon. But given the missile attacks on Haifa, they will go farther, not only to attack launcher sites, but to get rid of weapons caches. This means a move deep into the Bekaa Valley, the seat of Hezbollah power and the location of plants and facilities. Such a penetration would leave Israeli forces' left flank open, so a move into Bekaa would likely be accompanied by attacks to the west. It would bring the Israelis close to Beirut again.

I hope Friedman is right. I'd love to see the IDF pull Lebanese Hizb-Allah up by it's gnarly roots, burn it to the ground and salt the Earth. My only misgivings about this endeavor? I should be over there helping them make it happen.

UPDATE: LGF quotes JPost:

Defense Minister Amir Peretz said Thursday night that, “We expected Hizbullah to break the rules, and now we intend to break them.

“We do not mean for this event to end when the situation returns to how things were a few days ago,” he said.

Posted by: Ragnar at 06:07 PM | Comments (10) | Add Comment
Post contains 363 words, total size 2 kb.

1 The Leftwing peaceniks had their turn. Now let the rightwingers have a shot at it. They've been played for fools long enough. No more talk. Just kick some ass, Israel.

Posted by: Jesusland Carlos at July 13, 2006 06:25 PM (8e/V4)

2 About 3.5 billon of my tax bucks goes to Isreal. All I ask is Israel to win big, and look in the Beka Valley for Saddam's WMD.

Thank you, and if Israel needs more money, please ask.

Posted by: Leatherneck at July 13, 2006 06:46 PM (D2g/j)

3 You pay 3.5 billion in taxes?

Damn, and I thought MY taxes were painful...

Posted by: The All-Seeing Eye at July 13, 2006 06:48 PM (c/4ax)

4 Eye, that was pricesless.

This is getting big. Real big.

Posted by: Cpl M at July 13, 2006 07:32 PM (5iZ3e)

5 ...and the civilized world takes a deep breath of biblical proportions....

Posted by: mrclark at July 13, 2006 08:32 PM (/A5uJ)

6 Klan will stay out of this one.

Posted by: greyrooster at July 13, 2006 08:59 PM (cLnN8)

7 I've seen this movie before. Israel invaded Lebanon in the early eighties to destroy the PLO. They marched all the way to Beirut. They shelled the living shit out of the city. The PLO, like Hezbollah, has nothing to compare with Israel's weaponry, skill, and bravery. But Israel was unwilling to kill thousands of civilians with a ground assault on urban beirut. So they largely stayed out, shelling it, bombing it, killing hundreds. The world got madder and madder, and finally, Reagan's top aide and oldest friend at the WH, Mike Deaver, threatened to resign if the shelling didn't stop. Reagan called Begin, and thirty minutes later, the shelling stopped. Eventually, Phil Habib cut a deal, and the PLO was let out. This was Israel's most unpopular war, described by Israelis as their Vietnam. Oh, and Ariel Sharon let the sworn enemy of the PLO, the Phalangist Christians, into the camps of Sabra and Shatila. Hundreds of civilians were slaughtered in cold blood, their armed defenders had been forced out so they had no weapons to defend themselves. An Israeli commission ruled that Sharon was morally culpable (the Israelis had heard the massacre going on, the screams, etc).

Israel has the military power to devastate Lebanon. But as a fundamentally moral nation, they can't callously kill the number of Arabs it would take to root out Hebollah.

So if they do go all out again, it will be a stalemate again, I fear.

Posted by: jd at July 13, 2006 09:58 PM (DQYHA)

8 I've seen this movie before. Israel invaded Lebanon in the early eighties to destroy the PLO. They marched all the way to Beirut. They shelled the living shit out of the city. The PLO, like Hezbollah, has nothing to compare with Israel's weaponry, skill, and bravery. But Israel was unwilling to kill thousands of civilians with a ground assault on urban beirut. So they largely stayed out, shelling it, bombing it, killing hundreds. The world got madder and madder, and finally, Reagan's top aide and oldest friend at the WH, Mike Deaver, threatened to resign if the shelling didn't stop. Reagan called Begin, and thirty minutes later, the shelling stopped. Eventually, Phil Habib cut a deal, and the PLO was let out. This was Israel's most unpopular war, described by Israelis as their Vietnam. Oh, and Ariel Sharon let the sworn enemy of the PLO, the Phalangist Christians, into the camps of Sabra and Shatila. Hundreds of civilians were slaughtered in cold blood, their armed defenders had been forced out so they had no weapons to defend themselves. An Israeli commission ruled that Sharon was morally culpable (the Israelis had heard the massacre going on, the screams, etc).

Israel has the military power to devastate Lebanon. But as a fundamentally moral nation, they can't callously kill the number of Arabs it would take to root out Hebollah.

So if they do go all out again, it will be a stalemate again, I fear.

Posted by: jd at July 13, 2006 09:58 PM (DQYHA)

9 Israel should drop leaflets on every muslim city and town in the region, warning them to evacuate, then pound the places to dust, one by one. This would create a huge refugee problem for the arabs to deal with, and create a state of panic among the population. The neighboring states can't realistically make war on Israel, because they'll get their asses handed to them, again, and will be more humiliated than ever. It's time for the Israelis to be the bastards everyone accuses them of being.

Posted by: Improbulus Maximus at July 13, 2006 10:12 PM (v3I+x)

10 But if we drop leaflets telling them we will bomb them in the morning, won't the bad guys all leave? I want to kill the bad guys. Lebanon is screwy. The bad guys have all the guns and money. So how can the government control them?
The Israelis like us need a plan to kill the bad guys. More recruitment is needed to send spies into Hezbollah, Hamas, Al Queda, etc: They do it. I'm all for killing, but I do wish it to be the bad guys.
Then get rid of that stupid religion.

Posted by: greyrooster at July 14, 2006 05:32 PM (pkrE/)

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