March 17, 2007

"Global Warming" : Is it in Dispute?

The Bush Administration says it isn't, and claims that scientists know with "virtual certainty" that:

A warming trend of about 0.7 to 1.5°F occurred during the 20th century. Warming occurred in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, and over the oceans (NRC, 2001).
Is this accurate? Not accurate? Do we have any climatologists in the audience? If so, please weigh in.

Posted by: Ragnar at 01:42 PM | Comments (22) | Add Comment
Post contains 67 words, total size 1 kb.

1 I don't think anyone disagrees that the climate has warmed in the last century as we have recovered from the Little Ice Age.  The issue is cause.  CO2 increase can be the RESULT of warming and not a cause.  Would billions spent on CO2 mitigation and "carbon credits" really change anything?  Can the US decrease CO2 emissions as fast as China is increasing theirs?  Doubtful.  It is also doubtful that this is the warmest period in this interglacial.  Even more doubt comes in when one learns that the interglacial before the last ice age was even warmer than this one.   Fossil trees are seen about 400 miles North of the current line where trees meet tundra in the Northern latitudes.


The major problem is that the thermometer was invented at about the same time the Little Ice Age was ending and there were no temperature records from the Medieval Warm Period aside from reports of vinyards in England, increased crop harvests in Northern Europe and less pack ice in the Northern Atlantic.  All temperature recordings taken since the invention of the thermometer show a gradual warming ... which should be just about peaked now.  I sincerely doubt we are going to get much more warming. 

The notion that Gore is trying to pass off to people is to look at the last hundred years and use that to project the next 100. 

Posted by: crosspatch at March 17, 2007 03:31 PM (y2kMG)

2 One other data point.  As glaciers recede in the European alps, they are exposing tree branches and other bits of wood.  The wood carbon dates to about 5000 years ago.  At that time the areas that are now glacial were forest.  Yes, it is warming, but it is part of a natural cycle of warming and cooling.

Posted by: crosspatch at March 17, 2007 03:36 PM (y2kMG)

3 But it snowed "yesterday" doesn't that prove that all theories about global warming are false.
Well if "they" are for it then I'm certainly against it.

Posted by: John Ryan at March 17, 2007 03:46 PM (TcoRJ)

4 John Ryan are you being sarcastic?, bombacious?, ignorant?, just a troll? Please once would you bear some fruit to your argument since open ended statements here and other places I have seen really make you look inmature.

Posted by: DAT at March 17, 2007 04:15 PM (SIJnF)

5 Yes, the globe is warming, but how much of that warming is caused by man (anthropogenic)?

Some answers can be found at An Inconvenient Skeptic.  Lot's of vids,  documentaries and commentary not found in the MSM. Go figure!

Posted by: Hot Air at March 17, 2007 04:23 PM (zIOCj)

6 This one is pretty funny.  Methane Causes Global Warming.

Posted by: Hot Air at March 17, 2007 04:27 PM (zIOCj)

7

A few of you may of already surmized that I have a PHD in Climaxtology. I can say with complete certainty that if hillary is elected, the amount of man made climaxic heat that is affecting current global warming will in deed come to a complete stop and a great cooling will occur. However, an epidemic of DSBU will ensue and we will all kill each other. Why just the other day, Rooster was attacked by a bull suffering from DSBU and he had to beat him off with a stick.  It has more to do with the oceans releasing CO2 and less to do with our pal al. It's when things stop changing that we will have to worry.....


Posted by: wb at March 17, 2007 07:09 PM (s6CsG)

8 I think people will get to the root of this issue when/if someone digs into the newly created market in carbon credit trading.  My gut instinct is that this entire "crisis" is being created some some can make a bloody fortune in carbon credits trading.  And the sad thing is that by the time we come around to learning that temperatures are cooling again and it was all just natural variation, the "smart" money will be out of the market and the latecomers will be left holding the bag.  It is indeed a swindle and I would really like to see someone really dig into that carbon credit trading market.

Posted by: crosspatch at March 17, 2007 08:21 PM (y2kMG)

9 My gut instinct is that this entire "crisis" is being created some some can make a bloody fortune in carbon credits trading.

Really? What an amazing coincidence! Algore has carbon credits for sale in a new company that he happens to chair!

Funny, that!

Posted by: Good Lt at March 17, 2007 08:54 PM (yMbfY)

10 I would be interested to know if the team of climatologists who produce the majority of the AGW papers are also in that market.

Posted by: crosspatch at March 17, 2007 09:01 PM (y2kMG)

11 Present day global warming isn't caused by man any more than climate chage has EVER been caused by man throughout this planet's history.  Man produces a teensy weensy fraction of the Earth's co2, and besides co2 follows temperature change, not the other way around.

Posted by: Jesusland Carlos at March 17, 2007 09:26 PM (yJKSD)

12 Bullshit! Bullshit! and more Bullshit! No one really knows. One day the left decided the sky was falling, er the world was warming, so the right must prove them wrong. What a waste of time. THERE'S A WAR GOING ON.

Posted by: greyrooster at March 17, 2007 09:37 PM (XDiqx)

13 oh shit!! Thanks for reminding me Rooster, I've got gulls on the grill....

Posted by: wb at March 17, 2007 09:50 PM (s6CsG)

14 I said about all I feel like about Gore, and climate.  On the other hand I see that GW Bush is so far down the black hole of politics, that it is ruining him. He is losing his better qualities in an effort to appease. This will not work against his foes, and only loses him friends. Mourn for GWB the fighter, for he appears to be on his death-bed. The MSM has flogged him with lies and half truths for so long, that he is nearing exhaustion.              USA, all the way!

Posted by: Michael Weaver at March 17, 2007 10:43 PM (2OHpj)

15 Even great leaders get tired Professor, I do know for a fact that he does appreciate being told what a good job he has done and how much people appreciate his leadership. But don't count our man out, just pray that they don't choose to remember him like they did Lincoln. History will be the judge and I think it will see him as the finest at our worst time. You're an articulate fellow, tell him what you think. He doesn't always respond but given what your message will be, he won't need to.

Posted by: wb at March 17, 2007 11:43 PM (s6CsG)

16 I still think he's going to do something big before leaving office. Right now our two biggest carrier groups and headed toward the middle east. We've been in Iraq 5 years and suddenly we decided to send the big guns over? George knows what it takes to be #1 again.  What was his approval rating a week after we went into Iraq and kicked butt. 92%. I do believe he needs some new blood around him. But man the dude is loyal.

Posted by: greyrooster at March 18, 2007 12:56 AM (XDiqx)

17 Yes, George Bush actually exceeded my expectations. If by his own actions, he had not raised my expectations so high, I'd be pretty happy with him right now. He is still doing a man's job, and we do need to respect his efforts.             USA, all the way!

Posted by: Michael Weaver at March 18, 2007 05:28 AM (2OHpj)

18

The theory of AGW predicts a few things that we have seen or should be seeing.  Some of these predictions (as I understand it) are as follows:


1)      The warming should be spread over the globe, but with slightly greater rise at low and mid latitudes than at high latitudes.


2)      Highest warming should occur, not at the surface, but at 2-3 kilometers above the surface (I’ve even heard that it is greatest at 10km, but I’m not sure if that is correct)


3)      Most of the temperature rise will come from positive feedback mechanisms which will kick-in by the smaller push from increased CO2.


4)      The plot of the average temperature vs. CO2 concentration should track each other, except for the amplifications from the positive feedback.


What we are actually seeing is the following:


A)    The Antarctic has been getting colder over the last decade.


B)     Highest warming has occurred at the surface


C)    CO2 concentrations increased appreciably from 1940 through 1975 yet the average temperatures fell over this period.


D)    The plot of the average temperature vs. solar activity track each other with good uniformity.


E)     Adjustments for urban heat island effect have not been properly considered in some cases.


F)     Ice core data (Mr. Gore’s graph on his “documentary”) shows CO2 increases generally lag behind increases in temperature by roughly 600 years.  Some of the increased CO2 in the atmosphere we are seeing now is likely from the medieval warming period.

NASA data indicates atmospheres of both Mars and Venus have warmed slightly over the same period.

Posted by: RicardoVerde at March 18, 2007 09:05 AM (QrIXC)

19

My conclusion (for whatever it’s worth) is that the majority of the increased temperature since the mid 1970’s is from a combination of increased solar activity and increased urban encroachment into formerly rural areas.  Do I “deny” an increase from the greenhouse effect?  No, I do not.  My best guess from the data I’ve seen is that 0.1-0.3C of the increase is from CO2, and that is starting in the mid 1800’s.  There is no evidence that any catastrophic feedback mechanism really exists.  There is some evidence that slightly warmer temperatures would be beneficial to man (such as increased crop yields).


 

Having said all that, do I think it is a good idea to continue burning hydrocarbons (especially petroleum) for fuel?  No.  We really do need to look into increased efficiency nuclear plants, especially low-waste type plants.  Oil should really be saved for making plastic and petrochemical products, but I don’t recommend ANY multinational groupthink panel to regulate its use.

Posted by: RicardoVerde at March 18, 2007 09:06 AM (QrIXC)

20 Of course the human-blamer's heads explode when they try to rationalize this:

Mars Emerging from Ice Age Due to Global Warming:
http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/mars_ice-age_031208.html
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=global+warming+Mars&btnG=Google+Search
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/02/070228-mars-warming.html

Global Warming on Pluto Puzzles Scientists:
http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/pluto_warming_021009.html
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=global+warming+Pluto&btnG=Search

Global Warming on Jupiter:
http://motls.blogspot.com/2006/05/global-warming-on-jupiter.html

Wow.... didn't know my SUVs exhaust is THAT powerful....


Posted by: Jerry at March 18, 2007 04:53 PM (WqUu+)

21 The ice is melting
SUV underwater
Soon your home will be
 

Posted by: tbone at March 19, 2007 10:23 AM (HGqHt)

22 If global warming could be classfield as a weapon of mass distruction then odds are bush is going to be wrong.

Posted by: rob at March 19, 2007 02:09 PM (QpkBe)

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