February 15, 2006

Children Murdered Walking to School

(Baghdad) Highlights in today's religion of peace news include:

From USAToday.com:

A bomb exploded Wednesday on a central Baghdad street, killing three girls and a boy walking to school, police and relatives said. The dead included two sisters and their brother.

[ ... ]

Police said the children were between the ages of 10 and 14 and included two sons and a daughter of Jamil Mohammed, a poor vendor who works in a nearby public market.

"We are poor people who has nothing to do with politics," the father sobbed at the local police station. "We only wanted to live a decent life. What is the guilt of my dead children? They were only heading to school. Now I am left with only two children. This is a disaster for my family."

First of all, does anyone at USAToday proofread? The first paragraph says "two sisters and their brother" were murdered. A couple paragraphs down, it says "two sons and a daughter" were murdered. Hello, USAToday, anybody home? In a WaPo story, three boys are reported to have been murdered.

If one reads several reports, a conclusion can be drawn that four children were murdered, three boys and a girl. Why can't the mainstream media get the numbers right? You tell me. I do know that the MSM are fairly much in unison at providing justification for the killings. Without exception, it's reported that a store which sold black-market liquor was bombed, among other stores, by the way. So, the MSM can't get the number of kids murdered right, but they sure can reach into the minds of the thug criminals and extract a motive to justify the bombing. You see a slant? I do.

Moving on, it has to be assumed that there's no room on the moderate Muslim protest schedule to express outrage at the murder of innocent children. On the other hand, it might be that murdering children doesn't meet the threshold criteria for outrage. Planned protests, I believe, are reserved for more significant criminal acts than the murder of children. Like cartoons.

From Interested-Participant.

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More Good News from Kurdistan, the OTHER Iraq

Michael J. Totten is still in Kurdistan and has an amazing photo essay.

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February 13, 2006

Kurdistan: The OTHER Iraq

So much bad news about Iraq, it's good to see a reporter actually taking the time to visit Kurdistan. Incidentally, I support Kurdish independence. Of all our allies in the region, the Kurds have proved the most dependable. Far more than the Turks whose alliance is less necessary now than it has ever been.

Why don't you drop Michael J. Totten a line and give him the thumbs up for going to Kurdistan:

I believed him, partly because I wanted to believe him, but also because it lined up with everything I had heard and read about Kurdistan before I got there. Yes, it’s Iraq. But the war is in a different part of the country. There are no Kurdish insurgents. The Peshmerga guard Kurdistan’s de-facto border with ruthless effectiveness. Those who attempt to cross away from the checkpoints and the roads are ambushed by border patrols. Anyone who doesn’t speak Kurdish as their native language stands out among the general population. Iraqi Kurds, out of desperate necessity, have forged one of the most watchful and vigilant anti-terrorist communities in the world. Terrorists from elsewhere just can’t operate in that kind of environment. Al Qaeda members who do manage to infiltrate are hunted down like rats. This conservative Muslim society did a better job protecting me from Islamist killers than the U.S. military could do in the Green Zone in Baghdad.
FYI--the main insurgent group in the region is The Army of Ansar al-Sunna. But Kurdistan is so well guarded that the group generally (with the occasional exception) operates outside of Kurdistan proper.

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February 07, 2006

Sunni Insurgents Break From Al-Qaeda

(Baghdad) Sunni terrorists have decided that al Qaeda terrorists are not their friends anymore. In recent months, al Qaeda bombs have killed Sunnis. Consequently, a new anti-U.S. and, presumably, anti-al Qaeda insurgency group has been formed.

From Alertnet.org:

Sunni Arabs have formed their own militia to counter Shi'ite and Kurdish forces as part of an attempt to regain influence they lost after Saddam Hussein was toppled.

The so-called "Anbar Revolutionaries" have emerged from a split in the anti-U.S. insurgency, which included al Qaeda.

They are a new addition to a network of militias that have thrived in Iraq's bloody chaos and are tied to the country's leading ethnic and political parties, now negotiating the formation of a coalition government after the Dec. 15 election, the second such polls since the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq.

The newly-organised militia is made up mostly of Saddam loyalists, Iraqi Islamists and other nationalists leading an insurgency against U.S. and Iraqi government forces.

Another reason for the offshoot Anbar Revolutionaries is to confront the Shi'ite Badr Brigades and the Kurdish peshmerga (militia). Officials believe the Anbar Revolutionaries number in "the hundreds."

From Interested-Participant.

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Claim: Secret Tapes Reveal Saddam Had WMD

John Loftus of The Intelligence Summit claims that audio tapes of Saddam Hussein speaking to top aides prove conclusively that the Iraqi regime had WMD. The group says it will release the tapes to the public on February 17th.

Stop the presses!! This is BIG news. Long time Jawa Report readers know that I have been skeptical of the claim that Saddam Hussein moved whatever WMD capability Iraq had sometime in the weeks leading to the invasion.

If these tapes are authentic, and they actually are of Saddam Hussein talking about WMD which he had, then we should hear some major apologies from the Left real soon.

Intelligence Summit:

A former military intelligence analyst, who currently works as a civilian contractor, believes he has found a cache of extremely confidential--and very shocking--audio recordings of Saddam Hussein's office meetings. The audiotapes, which had apparently been overlooked, were found in a warehouse along with many other untranslated Iraqi intelligence files. These tapes are extremely significant, since they may be the best evidence yet of Saddam's secret intentions concerning weapons of mass destruction.

Before 9/11, many intelligence experts were convinced that a very strong and important Iraqi WMD connection existed, only to change their minds when no concrete evidence of that connection could be uncovered in the three years following the beginning of Iraqi war.

Because of the considerable historical importance of this stunning recent development, the contractor who obtained and reviewed these tapes plans to release them to the public on February 17, 2006 at the Intelligence Summitsm, a non-partisan, non-profit conference open to the public, scheduled to be held at the Hyatt Regency Crystal City Hotel in Arlington, Virginia that weekend.

After his presentation, a panel of intelligence experts will discuss the ways in which experts may verify the fact that Hussein in fact recorded these audiotapes. These procedures include utilization of voiceprint analysis and other technical means of voice verification. ...

In regard to these highly confidential audiotapes, Attorney John Loftus, President of the Intelligence Summitsm, recently stated that, "Saddam's secret office recordings continued well into the year 2000. In all, they contain at least 12 hours of totally candid discussions with his senior aides. Clearly, after these tapes have been verified and corroborated, they will be able to provide a few definitive answers to some very important-and controversial-weapons of mass destruction questions." Loftus went on to say that the contractor who found and recovered the tapes has requested that his identity remain anonymous until he makes his presentation.

Jay at Stop the ACLU points to this NY Sun article which says that The House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence has the tapes and is currently reviewing them:
The committee has already confirmed through the intelligence community that the recordings of Saddam's voice are authentic, according to its chairman, Rep. Peter Hoekstra of Michigan, who would not go into detail about the nature of the conversations or their context....

Mr. Hoekstra has already met with a former Iraqi air force general, Georges Sada, who claims that Saddam used civilian airplanes to ferry chemical weapons to Syria in 2002. Mr. Hoekstra is now talking to Iraqis who Mr. Sada claims took part in the mission, and the congressman said the former air force general "should not just be discounted." Mr. Hoekstra also said he is in touch with other people who have come forward to the committee - Iraqis and Americans - who claim that the weapons inspectors may have overlooked other key sites and evidence. He has also asked the director of national intelligence, John Negroponte, to declassify some 35,000 boxes of Iraqi documents obtained in the war that have yet to be translated.

One word of caution: I have speculated in the past, though, that Saddam may have believed he had WMD capability. Iraq was a state modeled after Stalinist Russia, so, it is not a stretch to believe that people lied to Saddam in order to save their own skins. Certainly, a lot of Iraqi generals believed that there were WMD. But more often than not these Generals say they didn't have the WMD, but they knew of some other General with them. So, it is possible that the tapes are less revelatory than the claim.

However, occam's razor dictates that the simplist explanation is probably the correct one. If Saddam believed he had WMD then there is a high probability that he actually did.

UPDATE: I've included a link to the Intelligence Summit website now. It was not there earlier simply by accident and thanks to Dean for pointing that out.

A lot of commenters point out that John Loftus is not the most reliable source. I have no idea if they are correct or not. But, as I said, I remain a bit skeptical, especially given that most intelligence about WMD in Iraq turned out to be based on rumors. The kind of rumors I cited above where every general assumes other generals have the WMD.

However, the NY Sun article makes the claim The House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence has verified that the voice on the tapes is Saddam Hussein. So, it sounds like the tapes are genuine. What is on the tapes remains the key question. We'll see I guess.

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February 01, 2006

Woodruff Incident: Soldiers React To Press Coverage (Updated)

'...you'd think we lost the entire 1st Marine Division or something.'

US troops in Iraq are reacting to a phenomenon I first mentioned here, as displayed by CNN's Christiane Amanpour in her unprofessional and shameful appearance on Larry King Live Monday:

So when something happens to people that we identify, like Bob and like Doug, we wake up again and realize, no, this is not acceptable, what's going on there.
It's not surprising that Amanpour can't identify with "ordinary" people. Journalism is not, by any stretch of the imagination, rocket science, and the standards of television place many dense and self-absorbed newsreaders, like Amanpour, in front of the public as "authorities". This idea that journalists, who follow undemanding courses of study to attain their positions (I studied journalism in college - absolute cake courses) are somehow an elite group of intellectuals is at the root of all problems with news reporting today.

Not being dense and self-absorbed; in fact, being pretty much the opposite, American servicepeople were quick to pick up on this. more...

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January 30, 2006

Iraqi 'Militias' Capture 270 Al Qaeda

What was it that Zawahiri was saying today? That he was hiding among the 'Muslim masses'? That the U.S. is all but defeated? Right....

In The Bullpen reprints this from an MSM source:

Some 270 Arab and foreign fighters have been detained in Iraq's restive al-Anbar province in a 'defensive campaign' launched by the local population towards the al-Qaeda network, tribal leaders say. A source close to tribal chiefs told Adnkronos International (AKI) that "the Iraqi security forces, with the help of the local population, have managed to arrest terrorists and Iraqis who provided them refuge."

Most of them were Syrian, Saudi and Jordanian nationals. They have been transferred to Baghdad to be interrogated to discover how they reached the region and who is financing their terrorist activites" the source told AKI.

"The group of (Jordanian militant and al-Qaeda pointman) Abu Musab al-Zarqawi did not expect a similar campaign which has dealt them a serious blow," he continued, adding that "it won't be the last given that the population is determined to expel those who kill civilians in the name of resistance".

Regarding the nature of the tribal militias, the source explained that "all the operations are carried out under the auspices of the defence minister Saadun al-Dulaimi and coordinated with volunteers in the area."

I'd also recommend James Joyner's new TCS piece as further evidence AQ is far from winning the war.

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Interview with U.S. General

In addition to figthing along side his troops 3 or 4 days a week, Brigadier General Daniel P. Bolger has this to say about our Iraqi allies:

Patriotism brings Iraqi troops to the recruiting station. Often, I ask them: ‘Why did you join?’ The most common answer I get is, ‘It’s my duty.’ Many have lost family members to terrorists. The Iraqi rifleman makes about $300 equivalent a month, but a terrorist can make that in a night planting one roadside bomb. The guys who fight for money work for the other side. We have the patriots, and that’s why we have the popular support.
Kewl.

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January 27, 2006

Non-Scandal Scandal #3450834

Duh.

Look, maybe it's the 14,084 Ann Rule type crime books I've read, or the 105,799,409,849 newspaper recorded accounts of criminal investigations I've seen, but detaining family members of suspects is unremarkably routine in our own country.

So the wives of terrorists are being taken in and held for questioning.

This is remarkable? This is a story? This is somehow different from Ted Bundy's girlfriend being subjected to hours upon hours of interrogation? No, a wife cannot be compelled to testify in court against her husband, but that doesn't mean they aren't held for questioning in the course of an investigation.

Yet, suddenly, in the middle of a war, the bar gets raised, when it should be lowered. These women talked about in the article hitched their wagons to terrorists. They aid, abet, and support the slaughter of innocent people.

The media expects us to weep for them?

But this is the money line. The part of the story that lit the match under my scrotum:

The documents are among hundreds the Pentagon has released periodically under U.S. court order to meet an American Civil Liberties Union request for information on detention practices.

What the f*** is a U.S. court doing ordering the f***ing Pentagon to release documents related to anything anywhere when we are in the middle of a war?

Since when is the AMERICAN Civil Liberties Union privy to what our military is doing with prisoners who are not American citizens and not residing in this country and who are our enemies doing everything they can to kill as many Americans as possible?

When one of our military members, or civilian hostages, or workers over there dies in an IED explosion, isn't that the ultimate violation of their American civil liberties?

I was born in 1967. Stories like this make me wish I had been born in 1907. If this were 1946, and I were the age I am now, I wouldn't have 30 yards of duct tape wrapped around my head to keep it from exploding when I read news of the war.

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January 22, 2006

Carroll Kidnapping Delays Release of Iraqi Female Detainees

A Reuters story about conflicting messages from US and Iraqi officials implies that six female detainees were scheduled for release before the Jill Carroll kidnapping:

BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Iraq's Justice Ministry said on Sunday it still expects U.S. forces to release six Iraqi women prisoners this week, despite U.S. comments to the contrary.
The confusion seems to stem from plans made prior to the terrorists' demands to release the women:
"We talked to the Americans and they agreed to put them before the review board. On January 17 we reached an agreement that they will be released," the official said.
January 17 was also the day that terrorists released a video of Carroll, demanding the release of the Iraqi women in exchange for Carroll's life. The US does not negotiate with terrorists. Releasing the women now would be seen as caving in to the kidnappers' demands, and would encourage more such acts.

Thus, the kidnappers have effectively ensured that the women detainees will spend more time behind bars.

Also posted at The Dread Pundit Bluto.

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January 13, 2006

Joshua Sparling On Sean Hannity's Radio Show

The Political Teen has posted audio of Joshua Sparling's interview on Sean Hannity's radio show. Sparling is the wounded soldier who received a death wish written in a Christmas card.

Michael Crook, the founder of the vile "Forsake the Troops" website, initially denied involvement, then admitted guilt for the card, which was signed, "Miguel".

But Crook, a notorious media whore, conveniently lost any proof that he had actually sent the card. Crook has a history of making false claims for publicity. In May, 2005 he faked his own death with a post to his website, and Crook originally came to regional notice by claiming to have found a soldier's camera and demanding $1,000 "finder's fee". He later admitted that he didn't have the camera.

Also posted at The Dread Pundit Bluto.

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January 12, 2006

Al Qaeda vs. Islamic Army in Iraq?

We've heard periodic reports of native terrorists fighting foreign terrorists in Iraq, but this report via Captain Ed is odd news, if true. The Islamic Army in Iraq is not just another 'insurgent' group. These are your hardcore headchoppers, hostage-takers, and civilian murderers.

These are the guys who recently murdered American civilian Ronald Schulz, and who have been implicated in the hostage taking of four Western peace activists. The group has, in fact, cooperated with al Qaeda in various operations in the past.

If The Islamic Army in Iraq has begun to fight with al Qaeda, then I'm afraid it is more likely a turf war than anything else. The news that other groups, which are more nationalist in orientation, though, fighting against al Qaeda, is probably more accurate. Der Spiegel:

According to an American and an Iraqi intelligence official, as well as Iraqi insurgents, clashes between Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia and Iraqi insurgent groups like the Islamic Army and Muhammad's Army have broken out in Ramadi, Husayba, Yusifiya, Dhuluiya and Karmah.

In town after town, Iraqis and Americans say, local Iraqi insurgents and tribal groups have begun trying to expel Al Qaeda's fighters, and, in some cases, kill them.

UPDATE: More from NY Times via Lawhawk and Say Anything:
In October, the two insurgents said in interviews, a group of local fighters from the Islamic Army gathered for an open-air meeting on a street corner in Taji, a city north of Baghdad.

Across from the Iraqis stood the men from Al Qaeda, mostly Arabs from outside Iraq. Some of them wore suicide belts. The men from the Islamic Army accused the Qaeda fighters of murdering their comrades.

“Al Qaeda killed two people from our group,” said an Islamic Army fighter who uses the nom de guerre Abu Lil and who claimed that he attended the meeting. “They repeatedly kill our people.”

The encounter ended angrily. A few days later, the insurgents said, Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia and the Islamic Army fought a bloody battle on the outskirts of town.

The battle, which the insurgents said was fought on Oct. 23, was one of several clashes between Al Qaeda and local Iraqi guerrilla groups that have broken out in recent months across the Sunni Triangle.

Like I said, turf war. This battle does not represent a turn of the tide against terrorists. That tide was turned long ago and has nothing to do with terrorist on terrorist bloodshed. It would be a lot like the Taliban turning on al Qaeda in Afghanistan. Whoever is the victor, the results would be the same.

Update II: Via James Joyner I read this over at Rantingprofs. I would simply add that The Islamic Army in Iraq and al Qaeda both share the same short-term goals (ousting the U.S.), intermediate goals (harsh Sunni sharia in Iraq), and long-term goals (restoration of caliphate). Both are salafiyist groups and are violent jihadis of the worst kind. I'll say it again, the dispute between the two groups is about who controls the new Iraq, not what that new Iraq should look like. Various pundits would do well if they had a cursory background of the terror organizations named in the article.

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January 11, 2006

Congressman Moran gets Pwned

Click here to see an Iraq war veteran take Moran to task over his stance on the war.

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January 10, 2006

U.S. Forces Raid Umm al-Qura Mosque

U.S. forces raided Baghdad's Umm al-Qura mosque Sunday after receiving a tip that activities related to Jill Carroll's kidnapping were going on inside:

ABC Online—Sunni Arabs in Iraq have branded a US raid on a mosque complex a "sinful assault" and say it will worsen their relations with the US military.

The United Nations (UN) has also criticised Sunday's military operation.

Sunni Arab political parties say the raid on the Baghdad offices of the influential Muslim Clerics Association targeted the clergy and violated a place of worship.

Witnesses say US soldiers slid down ropes from helicopters as troops on the ground burst into the mosque complex, blowing doors off hinges and ransacking offices.

It came two days before the major religious holiday of Eid al-Adha.

A UN statement from the office of special envoy Ashraf Qazi says he "noted with regret the incident at the Umm al-Qora mosque" and that it "underlined the importance of all parties respecting the sanctity of holy sites and places of worship".

A UN spokeswoman, amplifying the statement, says Mr Qazi was referring specifically to the US and Iraqi military operation. ...

The United Nations criticized the raid. I say leave no stone unturned ...

Resources:

These images show that the Umm al-Qura mosque is very near the Al-Adel district where Jill Carroll was kidnapped:

Satellite image: Umm al-Qura mosque
Satellite image: Umm al-Qura mosque/Al-Adel district in west Baghdad
Google maps: Al-Adel district in west Baghdad

Cross-posted at OpinionBug.com

Related at Rocket's Brain Trust

Update (1/10/2006 9:37pm):

Here is a story about SRSG Ashraf Qazi's reaction to the Umm al-Qura raid:

UN—Reacting to an incident at the Umm al-Qura mosque in Iraq, the senior United Nations envoy to the country today stressed that all parties must honour the sanctity of holy sites.

In a statement released in Baghdad, Ashraf Qazi voiced regret at the event yesterday, when some security forces entered the mosque.

Mr. Qazi called on the responsible authorities to ensure that the issue is investigated as quickly and transparently as possible.

This incident, following others in recent weeks involving places of worship, should serve as a reminder of the need to eschew violence and build mutual trust and confidence, Mr. Qazi said, calling on all concerned to support a fully inclusive political process that would increase stability and a peaceful future for the people of Iraq. ...

Before I blow a gasket I want to respond to Mr. Qazi's outrageous remarks.

Mr. Qazi, a "holy" site becomes unholy when it allows terrorists to defile it.

Mr. Qazi, the raid on the Umm al-Qura mosque was the direct result of intelligence that indicated activities related to Jill Carroll's kidnapping were going on inside.

Mr. Qazi, a young woman was kidnapped and her companion murdered in cold-blood and you express regret and call for an investigation into a raid whose sole purpose was to possibly rescue her? How dare you Sir!

And Mr. Qazi, you say the raid on Umm al-Qura should be a reminder of the need to eschew violence and build mutual trust and confidence? Eschew violence? How dare you Sir! What about the senseless violence directed at Jill Carroll? What about the blood of Alan John Ghazi spilled on an al-Adel street!

With all due respect Sir, your remarks are about as asinine as any I've ever read. And by them, you make yourself a part of the problem rather than a part of its solution.

"Leave no stone unturned."

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January 09, 2006

It's Chimpy's Fault, Dammit!

The sturmtruppers of the only real terrorist nation make Iraqi women cry.

That's an update to my earlier post.

In unrelated news, welcome back Rusty, you're just in time to mark the real Grim Milestone that the media will surely fail to note:


UPDATE:

The AP is reporting that the first surgery was successful.

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January 07, 2006

Female American Journalist Kidnapped In Baghdad

Terrorists have kidnapped a female American journalist and killed her Iraqi translator:

Scotsman—According to Mohamadawi, the translator told police before he died that she had been kidnapped and that they had been heading to meet Adnan al-Dulaimi, head of the Sunni Arab Iraqi Accordance Front who lives in the Adel neighbourhood - dominated by Sunni Arabs and considered one of toughest in Baghdad.

According to Samir Najim, a guard at al-Dulaimi's office, three armed men in a red Opel car intercepted the journalist's car and shot the translator before taking her in their car and driving away. ...


The journalist's name hasn't been revealed.

Cross-posted at OpinionBug.com

Update (1/7/2005 12:16pm):

The identity of the kidnapped woman remains unconfirmed, but two sources indicate she is Jill Carroll, a correspondent of the Christian Science Monitor:

Sources:

Euro News [ Euro News has removed all references to Jill Carroll ]
Kuwait News Agency (KUNA)
La Repubblica

Hat tip: Free Republic

Update (1/9/2005 3:58pm):

The Sunday Times Online had a story yesterday in which they said Al-Qaeda had released a statement claiming responsibility for her kidnapping:

Times Online—Attempts were being made last night to locate an American journalist who was kidnapped in Baghdad yesterday after a meeting with a senior Sunni politician. Her Iraqi translator was killed, writes Ali Rifat.

Al-Qaeda claimed responsibility for the kidnapping in a statement posted on the internet. ...


Jill, we're praying for your safe return.

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December 23, 2005

Italy Goes After U.S. Marine In Nicola Calipari Shooting

Italian prosecutors have launched an official investigation targeting a U.S. Marine for the shooting death of Nicola Calipari which it considers a “murder":

ANSA—A United States marine has formally been placed under investigation here for the murder of an Italian intelligence agent in Iraq last March .

The Rome prosecutor’s office identified the marine as Mario Lozano .

Intelligence officer Nicola Calipari was killed on March 4 when US troops manning a temporary roadblock opened fire on a car carrying him, another agent and a released hostage to Baghdad airport. . . .

State Department spokesman Sean McCormick today said that the Calipari case is considered “closed” but he referred questions about legal actions to the U.S. Department of Defense.

Nicola Calipari was the Italian intelligence officer that negotiated Giuliana Sgrena’s release from Iraqi terrorists back in March 2005. He was killed when the car transporting Giuliana Sgrena and himself failed to stop at a U.S. Military checkpoint and was fired upon. At the time, Italy had decided not to share its rescue plan with the United States and I believe that is what led to Calipari’s tragic death, not a young Marine doing his job.

Cross-posted at OpinionBug.com

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December 20, 2005

Luuuuucy, You Got Some Splainin To Do

WTF?

BAGHDAD, Iraq — About 24 top former officials in Saddam Hussein's regime, including a biological weapons expert known as "Dr. Germ," have been released from jail...

Got me, I don't understand it either.

As far as deeming some of these people as no longer a security threat, you mean to tell me that "Dr. Germ" wouldn't be welcome to ply her trade in any number of Middle East Jew-hating dictatorships?

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December 19, 2005

New CSIS Report on the Iraq War

Tony Cordesman, at the Center for Strategic and International Studies has a new report on the Iraq War (h/t: Dan, at WoC). Some key excerpts:

The insurgency so far lacks any major foreign support other than limited amounts of money, weapons, and foreign supporters. It does not have the support of most Shi'ites and Kurds, who make up some 70-80% of the population. If Iraqi forces become effective in large numbers, if the Iraqi government demonstrates that its success means the phase out of Coalition forces, and if the Iraqi government remains inclusive in dealing with Sunnis willing to come over to its side, the insurgency should be defeated over time -- although some cadres could then operate as diehards at the terrorist level for a decade or more.

Apparently he didn't get the memo about the conflict being unwinnable, but he does genuflect in that general direction:

To succeed, the US must plan for failure as well as success. It must see the development or escalation of insurgency as a serious risk in any contingency were (sic) it is possible, and take preventive and ongoing steps to prevent or limit it. This is an essential aspect of war planning and no Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, service chief, or unified and specified commander can be excused for failing to plan and act in this area. Responsibility begins directly at the top, and failures at any other level pale to insignificance by comparison.

Well I don't have the endowments of Cordesman, but let me offer a few observations. First, one must assume that he's not suggesting we "plan to fail," although some will probably accuse him of that. Rather, what he suggests is that our war planning is too infused with "happy talk," and is therefore not realistic about the capabilities of this enemy. Although I have a great deal of confidence in our military, it's possible that Cordesman is right and we aren't taking the threat of "failure" seriously enough. Which raises the next issue.

There's a lot of difference between "planning for failure" in the sense of having contingencies should Iraq, or the Ummah, descend into civil war, and addressing the specific set of conditions that could lead to civil war. Conflating the two is like saying that knowing what you intend to do after the divorce is the same as dealing with the marital difficulties that could lead to divorce. Cordesman seems to imply the second meaning, but the first is also important. After all, Victor Davis Hanson doesn't think a civil war in the Middle East necessarily the worst that could happen. And if Hanson is right then what we ought to consider is what role we might play in such a war, since the consequences are probably not something we could just afford to ignore. Whether or not we "fail" in that sense isn't entirely up to us. The onus rests partly on the Iraqis.

But finally, the phrase "planning for failure" just doesn't strike this reader as appropriate to war strategy or tactics. I'm fairly certain that Eisenhower considering Project Overlord, and Grant when he made the right turn to steal a march on Lee, were both fully cognizant of the risks and contingencies involved. But I'm also pretty sure they never used the phrase "planning for failure" to describe how they dealt with those contingencies. The words don't seem to emerge from the lexicon of military planning, but from the world of diplomacy. And if we're in a war then diplomacy has already failed in the first instance. So what we're really talking about is not "failure" but cascading failures, and whether the cascade can ultimately be halted before reaching the third conjecture.

And that's the whole point behind going into Iraq in the first place. The next plateau in the cascade would be a civil war, but even that's not as bad as it gets.

[Update: The link to Three Conjectures has been corrected. Apparently the old links I had to that series have been degraded as a result of some sort of Blogger glitch.]

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December 15, 2005

Q&A Time

Q: How does a Jew respond to seeing his people murdered routinely by Arab Muslims?

A: Click to find out.

That boy's not naive. He knows that in order for Israel to be at peace, first the surrounding nations need to be at peace with themselves.

Getting Shiites, Sunnis, Kurds, Turkomen, Assyrians, et.al. to find common cause is a first step to getting them to realize that Israel is not the enemy.

Getting them to realize that "we are endowed by our Creator, with certain inalienable rights...that all men are created equal" would do wonders for the Middle East.

Call me an optimist, but I see the day when Iraqi diplomats stand up in the U.N. to denounce the constant criticism of Israel in that body.

After today, it could happen.

[personal note: I'm sick of off-topic comments by everyone showing up in my email. Stick to the subject or STFU]

Posted by: Vinnie at 11:59 PM | Comments (8) | Add Comment
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It's Time

Our soldiers have sacrificed life and limb. Our citizens have traveled thousands of miles away from family to pitch in. You, me, and every other tax-paying American have spent our hard-earned money.

The polls are open in Iraq.

Don't let us down.

The Sandcrawler's own Dread Pundit Popeye's Nemesis is on it.

I thought I saw something else on this site that said someone in Iraq might be covering it, but that might just be my imagination.

My fellow 'droid hustlers are free to update and bump this post throughout the day as election news comes out, if they wish.

Updated by Howie:

Surprise Surprise Surprise!!!!!

Iraqi’s are voting their asses off. Wait a minute could this be “success”? Nah nyay nya nya nya!!!!

Iowahawk has another of his "Live with the Zarkman" interviews direct from Iraq.

A few other links below the break for those of us basking in the glow of success. more...

Posted by: Vinnie at 01:20 PM | Comments (22) | Add Comment
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On Media Differences

A great day, with all this election business in Iraq. Historical, some would say. Yea, nearly all headlines talk about the historic-ness (yes, I just made that a word). But a few news outlets have a curious phrasing in their stories...

"...the first full-term parliament since Saddam Hussein’s ouster..."

Um, can we, like, not count anything during the Hussein era as democratic? Hell, Nazi Germany had a full-term parliament throughout the war. Doesn't mean it was comparable to a truly elected body. Only Fox News seemed to have the right idea to include this clarification (though they also include the stock phrase from before):

"Some Iraqis said Thursday's vote was a symbolic gesture of democracy that had been suppressed for years under the brutal rule of Saddam Hussein."

Because, no matter what some in the media think, this does NOT count as democracy. Then again, this might explain a lot of why the media cannot see any progress in Iraq -- once again, they have no idea what to look for.

Posted by: wineaholic at 09:24 AM | Comments (7) | Add Comment
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December 11, 2005

Iranian Militants Abducted in Iraq

From a CENTCOM press release:

BAGHDAD, Iraq -- Two members of the People’s Mojahedin of Iran, Hossein Pouyan and Mohammad-Ali Zahedi from the City of Ashraf, were reported to authorities as abducted on Aug. 4 in eastern Baghdad while on a routine logistics trip. The residents of Camp Ashraf have been considered protected persons under the fourth Geneva Convention since June 2004.

Upon receiving reports of the abduction, Multi-National Force - Iraq requested that the Iraqi Police investigate the incident and is assisting in attempts to locate the missing individuals.

MNF-I requests that anyone in possession of information on the whereabouts of these two individuals to contact the Iraqi Police or MNF-I at the email address below.

The PMOI, also know as Mujahedin-e Khalq, is a little-known group, apparently welcomed into Iraq by the Saddam Hussein regime during its war with Iran. PMOI was designated as a "terrorist organization" by the US State Department in 1997, and the organization's UK-based media arm has been fighting to get the designation changed.

No reason has been given for the long delay in reporting the abductions.

Also posted at The Dread Pundit Bluto.

Posted by: Bluto at 01:32 PM | Comments (4) | Add Comment
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December 09, 2005

You Won't See The Sunni Clerics On This One, Either

Karim Salam.

You can debate all you want as to whether this hostage or that deserved their fate, we don't think any of them deserve it, unless it can be conclusively proven that it was staged.

But I dare anyone to defend this.

Do it. I dare you to justify the kidnapping of an 8 year old boy.

Go ahead, try it. Those of you who think the CPT people are getting their just due, tell me how this boy is getting his. Those of you who scream Bush lied people died, you tell me how someone who would kidnap an 8 year old boy is a "freedom fighter" or a "minuteman."

Go ahead, I f'ing dare you.

Posted by: Vinnie at 08:15 PM | Comments (38) | Add Comment
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Iraqis Turn in Al Qaeda 'Butcher of Ramadi'

Another victory in the war on terror. Another one bites the dust.

Centcom:

CAMP BLUE DIAMOND, Iraq —The number three terrorist on the 2nd Brigade Combat Team (28th Infantry Division) High Value Individual list was detained Dec. 9 in the provincial capital of ar Ramadi.

Amir Khalaf Fanus, an al-Qaeda in Iraq terrorist in the Ramadi area, was wanted for criminal activities including murder and kidnapping. Today, local Iraqi citizens brought him to an Iraqi and U.S. Forces military base in Ramadi.

Fanus, also known in Ramadi by his Iraqi moniker, “the Butcher,” was well-known for his crimes against the local populace. He is the highest ranking al Qaeda in Iraq member to be turned into Iraqi and U.S. officials by local citizens.

His capture is another indication that the local citizens tire of the terrorists’ presence within their community. Iraqi and U.S. Forces have witnessed increasing signs of citizens fighting the terrorists within Ramadi as the Dec. 15 National Elections draw nearer.

America, F*** YEAH!! More good news here including oodles of terrorists caught with their pants down and other stuff the MSM will bury in the back pages.

ITB also on the case.

Posted by: Rusty at 01:59 PM | Comments (16) | Add Comment
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